Re: MEGAMILLIONS BARE BONES
- From: John Griffin <thathillbilly@xxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: 16 Jul 2006 19:10:05 GMT
Harry Scott <harry@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Bringing the sales record up to date over the last 5 draws
particularly;
A jackpot was won in the previous draw 106.
Draws 107 to 111, 30th June 2006 to 14th July 2006, inclusive;
Sales $13.0m + $9.8m + $12.5m + $13.4m + $15.4m == $64.1m
total
Average is $12.8m or at 7.3% "strength", $175,711,535 is full
strength.
Probably one of the "weakest" lotteries in the World at that
7.3% strength over these preliminary build up draws to the
Mega Jackpot.
Sales procurement is by manipulating prize totals and
multiplying each prize tier by the odds pertaining for that
tier, as below;
Example is draw 111 last night Friday 14th July 2006;
Prize numbers won;
5 + 1 (Jackpot) 0
5 + 0 1
4 + 1 17
4 + 0 993
3 + 1 1133
2 + 1 17781
3 + 0 52711
1 + 1 109103
0 + 1 204400
Odds are
1/175,711,536|3,904,701|689,065|15,313|13,781|844|306|141|74.8
respectively.
Example is 0 + 1, 204400 x 74.8 giving 15.3m probably a good
guide to the sales figure as it is the most common prize by
far. Others are;
4 + 1 $11.7m|
4 + 0 $15.2m| These 3 assumed less accurate than 4 below but
noted.. 3 + 1 $15.6m|
2 + 1 $15.0m
3 + 0 $16.1m
1 + 1 $15.3m
0 + 1 $15.3m Average of these 4 is around $15.4m.
I will settle for that as my figure
Okay, so I should have left out the adjective when I described
your guesses, not wild guesses. However, you really ought to
find out how to do a more reliable weighted average instead of
the straigt average. The high end sample sizes are always too
small to trust the projected sales based on them. I checked some
of your figures (when you were billing your (wild) guesses as
hard data), and they didn't work very well.
People are asking... other than you and me, who cares?
for which "they" do not
publish a comparative sales figure, ashamed of the emaciated
7.3% "strength", no doubt!
They are not ashamed. You're talking about civil service
employees. None of them give a rat's ass about anything.
Now should build up toward a large jackpot maybe but still a
sham, really.
From The Guy who knows more about The Lottery in a hard headed
and pragmatic sense than ANYONE on this PLANET and can
probably answer questions you may not even be able to frame.
That declamation gets closer to minimal credibility in direct
proportion to its increasing diffidence.
No forecasting and no stupid wheels with no sillier wheels
producing blocks of thousands of lines to give a #4
"guaranteed" dividend, a hoot!
ALL LINES APPEAR EQUAL IN THIS LOTTERY UNIVERSE.
Except when used in a ScottATHENS 48 NUMBER RANDOM WHEEL.
Who cares if they don't appear equal? They are.
That reminds me of a famous rec.gambling.lottery quote: "Those
numbers don't look random." (Surprisingly, it wasn't Paul who
said that, but he would.)
.
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