Re: Lottery facts for Sherry

Well Jack, it's been several days now and John still refuses to answer the
question as was presented to him.
In case you have not read his most recent drivel, his latest attempt to
weasel out of answering was (and I quote);
For now, let's just say I have a die of my own. I roll it. To make you
squeal some more of your anile remarks, let's say it comes up with the
number n, 0<n<7. I choose ((n+17) modulo 6)+1
Hummm, Why did he insist he bring his own die?
Why would he choose the same number as was thrown last throw ( ((n+17)
modulo 6)+1 is going to always = n, provided n is greater the 0 and less
then 7)?
Answer, he brings a loaded die (or he accepts that the preceding roll
indicates a predictable pattern).

He then tried to divert the issue further with (again I quote);
Now that we've dispensed with your trivia, I'm going
to give you a coin and you're going to do whatever it
takes to assure me that there's a 99% chance that it's
a fair coin. Tell me how you're going to do that
He cannot get it through his little pointy-head that, in the real world,
there is no such animal. My high school math class wasted three whole days
proving that out.
The methods for testing a coin are simple enough.
There are a couple of commonly used test. We used the Posterior probability
density something, something. We conducted a test by tossing a coin a
predetermine number of times (n) and noted the number of resulting heads (h)
and tails (t).
We then let the r be the actual probability of obtaining heads in a single
toss of the coin (the value desired). After flipping the coin n times, we
plugged the numbers into Bayes' theorem (which is a very dry piece of
mathematics you can look up anywhere).
A nice theory, but in real life there are variables that make a fair coin
impossible.
The condition of the coin, the positioning of the coin prior to the flip,
the strength and angle of the flip, etc, etc, etc.
One whole day was spent attempting to build an automated "flipper" that
flipped the coin in precisely the same manner each time and had a "seat" so
as the coin was positioned precisely the same each flip. Even after culling
through a stack of mint coins and tokens (looking for the one most
symmetrically balanced) the best results we could obtain was 83% (hardly a
fair coin).

Perhaps John will one day accept that the "fair coin" as well as the voices
in his head does not real exist.

Later Sherry

-----------------------------
"Jack Ricci" <ricci@xxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:e94073016f9@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
What number do you choose and why?
"Sherry Davis" <NoSpam@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:12atg.3623$vO.326@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Sherry,
If you don't give this phenomenon a name, Johnny won't know how to look
it up anywhere, or how to ask about it for the correct answer in other
newsgroups, so that he can then search for a REFUTE in RGL, and run his
brain off for another month or 6. I think he's stumped!...but no doubt,
it's
just a very small stump...

I suspect Johnny would shoot them the finger, and they'd take it as the
number 1...This should prompt them to put yet another hole in his head
when
they roll the 6...

LottoHackJack

You have been captured by terrorist and taken to their camp in the
desert.
Here they have a game whose rules are simple.
You must pick a number from 1 to 6.
They then roll a die on the commander's desk.
If you have chosen correctly you can go free.
If you have chosen incorrectly you die a slow horrible death.
Since being held prisoner you have seen this game played out 100 times
before.
You have seen the number 6 come up 85 times, the number 5 come up 5
times,
the number 4 come up 4 times, the number 3 come up 3 times, the number 2
has
come up twice and the number 1 has come up only once.
You are dragged to the commander's office, the guard holds the die in
his
hand, you are ordered to choose a number.
What number do you choose and why?

Sorry, no asking for a fair die, no asking that it be rolled in a vacuum
chamber, no getting diarrhea of the mouth in the hopes they lose
interest
and go away.
-----------------------------------------
"John Griffin" <thathillbilly@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:Xns97FE173C96D6thathillbillyyahooco@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
"Illiterate Airhead Sherry Davis" <NoSpam@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

[ another outburst of USENET's lamest schtick ]

Are you still claiming to be a "mental health councilor"?
BWAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHA!







.

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