Re: Lottery facts for Sherry

I would be willing to guess that it has not only been given an "official"
name but also, somewhere, at sometime, someone has done some research on it.
The first free moment I have I am going to see if I can dig up any
documentation.

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"Jack Ricci" <ricci@xxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:e8tlbk016mt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
the theory of "likelihood".
"Sherry Davis" <NoSpam@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:vdlsg.2606$vO.384@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Actually...That is probably an excellent name for the phenomenon, and
actually, I suspect most of us think and play the games in that manner of
mindset after noticing and reaching a hypothesis, personal opinion, new
theory or gut feeling about past results and future possiblities in the
hobby we follow, regardless of the mathematics involved.

John, I have responded to you post in a courteous manner.
When you post your reply (please remember what we talked about) do so in
a
civil manner without the use of name-calling and profanity. These only
detract from the substance of the subject matter.
John, I answered this in my first reply but did so in a short, curt
manner,
for which I apologize. I shall attempt to do so again in greater detail.

If you keep taking his club away, he will still razz you about the
spelling and grammar mistakes to make himself always look right and point
the finger in the wrong direction. We've all been through this with this
troll. It's best not to feed him. He knows he's sick and can't fix it.

The only things the super-troll has attempted to teach us so far will
follow below, however, the goon has failed miserably at getting his points
across to his subordinates.

1) It's hard to make a comeback when you haven't been anywhere
2) At the feast of ego, everyone leaves hungry
3) Make Love, Not War...Hell, Do Both-Get Married
4) Fighting for peace is like screwing for virginity
5) No wonder you always go home alone
6) If voting could really change things, it would be illegal
7) It's not " How high are you? " It's " Hi, How are you "? ( Yah right )


Point 1: Mathematically you are 100% correct.
This is the basic law of probability that I learned in grade school.
"The odds of an event occurring are directly proportional to the number
of
possible outcomes of the event."
Thus, if you flip a coin there is a 50/50 chance that it will come up
heads.
If you roll a single die there is a 1 of 6 chances that any one of the
six
numbers will occur.
The law of probability also states that each new event will not be
influenced by the outcome of previous events.
Thus, if you flip a coin and it comes up heads and you flip the coin a
second time the odds remain 50/50 that it will come up heads.
Taking this a bit further;
In the lottery this law is used to formulate the permutation formula
which,
in its simplest form, state that if you have 50 objects, which have been
numbered from 1 to 50, the odds of reaching in and randomly pulling out
the
object numbered "50" is 1 in 50. If you randomly pull a second object
the
odds of pulling out the object numbered "50" is now 1 in 49 as there are
now
only 49 objects in the "pool".
Thus, the odds of drawing the object numbered "50", in 6 attempts, are
6/50
or 1 in 12.
To calculate the outcome of a multiple objects being pulled you would
simply
factor the above.
Thus, the odds of pulling a pre-selected set of 6 objects from a pool of
50
objects would be;
6/50 × 5/49 × 4/48 × 3/47 × 2/46 × 1/45 = 720/11,441,304,000 or 1 chance
in
15.89 million.
I know that you are familiar with the above but I went into detail so as
to
assure you that I also understand it.

Point 2: Mathematically you are 100% correct.
Again this is simply basic math.
To assure you that I understand this;
If, using the example above, you buy two tickets your chances now become
2
in 15.89 million (1 in 7.95 million).

Given that I understand the above please also take in the factor that I
am
on a limited budget and cannot afford to buy 15.89 million
tickets.Therefore
I would like to find an "edge", a way (in my opinion) that improves my
chances of winning.
Please keep in mind that this is my opinion and, right or wrong, I am
entitled to my opinion.

Since the odds of probability are so great that I have no hope to
winning
the lottery in my lifetime I have elected to use a methodology that
could
be
called the theory of "likelihood".
This "theory" is probably as old as gambling itself and based on the
same
believe that many gamblers have in "streaks".
If you see a shooter constantly throwing winning dice, bet on him.
If a shooter is constantly "crapping out", bet against him.
Mathematically both shooters have the same odds, but the likelihood, in
the
opinion of many, is different.

In Addition, if you flip a coin 100 times and it comes up heads 75
times,
bet that it is going to come up heads next time.
Mathematically the odds say it only has a 50/50 chance but the previous
coin
flips have already shown you that it is not obeying the laws of
probability.

In example, under this belief;
If I see that the number 17 is currently being drawn a disproportionate
number of times, although the mathematical probability remains
unchanged,
I
feel its likelihood is greater as it is on a winning "streak".
By applying the concept to many factors my hope is that I can reduce the
field of possible numbers (56 in the case of the Mega Millions) down to
a
field of numbers that I can afford to wheel with good coverage.

Using this I have had better results then when I randomly picked
numbers.
It may be pure luck but thus far it has worked for me.
I have not won big pots, as I am sure others in this group have, but I
will
continue to use it until if find something better.
Even if this "theory" is completely flawed, mathematically my odds have
not
been diminished so, as the saying goes, "It can't hurt".

I have mentioned two pieces of software that I have found useful in my
quest
of hitting the Jackpot (I shan't mention the names again for fear of
being
accused of trying to peddle software).
I did so under the mistaken belief that this newsgroup was about the
exchange of ideas and resources. I now understand that I was mistaken
and
shall not mention any lottery related matters again.

John, I fully understand that you think that there is no way to improve
your
odds other then buying more tickets and I agree that this is a valid
statement. I have always purchased, and intend to continue purchasing,
as
many tickets as my limited budget allows and no, I do not spend every
available penny I have on the lottery.
Each month I set aside a percentage of my disposable income for "fun"
(movies, dinner out, lottery, etc.). The money I spend on the lottery
comes
out of my "fun" budget.

John, I have responded to you post in a courteous manner.
When you post your reply (please remember what we talked about) do so in
a
civil manner without the use of name-calling and profanity. These only
detract from the substance of the subject matter.

-----------------------------------
"John Griffin" <thathillbilly@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:Xns97FB755B8575Ethathillbillyyahooco@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Here we are a couple of days after you went nuts and started
courting me with your crazy-lady act, people are beginning to
talk. "Shut the *** up," they're saying.

Okay, so I will help you gracefully sidle away from your goofy
diversion attempts. All you have to do is pull yourself
together, stop embarrassing yourself with the fantasy thing, and
comment on the two facts below. Caution: These are the same
facts that freaked you out initially. Your first response said
that your understanding of them was that my tool isn't big enough
for you. (Few if any are, I suspect, considering your instant
descent to that shopworn and infelicitous banality.) Pause here
and take four deep breaths before considering them again..

1) Every ball in a lottery bin has precisely (*) the same
probability of coming up next. Note that your previous answer to
that, namely "This is a reason why cousins shouldn't marry," was
the same as saying "I'm a bimbo," which you can't say directly
because it's neither false nor part of the fantasy world you live
in.

2) The only way to increase your chance of winning a lottery
jackpot is to buy another ticket. Here's another helpful hint
for you: "Brush your teeth" is NOT a useful argument against
that--only against you.

Your failure to present an argument against those two statements
will constitute a tacit confession that your advertisement is a
pack of lies.


(*) Hold the arguments about normally distributed paint thickness
and *** like that for another day.










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