Re: what the math really says

Your math says the 7 NEVER has to show; is that not correct ?

No, that is not correct. My math has a Law of Large Numbers, which
says that as the number of trials increases, the ratio of sevens to
non-sevens will become proportionally closer to the theoretical ratio
of 1:5. Obviously, for this law to hold, there ->must<- be some
sevens
in a large number of trials.

Does "vanishing small" mean the longer the 7 has not appeared, the
greater the chance it will appear ?

What you continue to ignore with this statement is that probability
->always<- refers to the future. The probability of not rolling a
seven in the ->next<- 10 rolls, which I will label rolls 1-10, is
..1615. After rolling 2 non-sevens, the probability of not rolling a
seven in the ->next<- 10 rolls, rolls 3-12, is also .1615, but the
probability of not rolling a seven in the original 10 rolls, rolls
1-10, is now .2326 because the results of 2 of those rolls are in the
past.

Are you saying what I think you are saying or is there a mathematical
wiggle in there.

No wiggle, only your misunderstanding of what probability refers to.

Are you mathematically correct when you say the 7 will certainly be
rolled before the end of the universe ?

I believe I am, but I have to concede that I can claim no expertise in
the mathematics of infinity.

I cannot foretell the future. But, you and I know we have seen 'craps
senarios' repeat themselves time after time after time. You can sniff
things out.....you can manage money.....you can be disciplined....you
can quit. You know full well there are many things other than the math
that govern your success at the table.

The math quantifies your chances of succeeding ->if you remain<- at
the
table. Money management, discipline, and exit criteria (i.e.
quitting)
are all good things to have, not because they increase your chances of
monetary success, but because they increase your chances of having a
positive experience. As for sniffing things out, that cannot be done
in a game of random and independent trials without some amount of
prescience.

Yes, I have left a table when some oaf pushed his way into it and
"caused" a 7-out. Yes, at the time I thought, "This guy is bad news."
Upon reflection, however, I realized that I simply did not want to be
in the vicinity of the cretin.

To know the future would make you perfect at the table; no one is
perfect.....to make the right guess based upon what you have seen
over the years and to be smart about how you go about your game plan
and to have discipline of iron, I think will take you a long way. You
won't win all the time but you will lose less of the time and when
you do lose you won't lose as much.

Money management, discipline, and exit criteria will keep losses
within tolerable limits. However, the only thing experience helps
with is making the guess that maximizes the positive aspect of the
gambling experience, IOW your utility.

At times I overstay my welcome at a table, so to speak, because of a
perceived radical change in the conditions (e.g. a shift change, the
departure of another player with whom I had been out of phase). I
continue to play to satisfy my curiosity as to the effect, if any, the
change will have. IOW I stay because I would be mad if I didn't and
later learned I had missed out on a big hand. Sometimes the magic
works, sometimes it doesn't, but I make sure I will not regret the
decision to stay before making it regardless of what happens.


1 2
| The Midnight Skulker
9 * 3 aka Van Lewis
aka cvlewis43@xxxxxxxxx
6

.

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