Re: True odds bets? Probability says........


Your many statements on the subject reveal a misunderstanding and
misapplication of expectation and random walk. You're basing your
argument on the fact that the average outcome of a random walk based on
a fair bet is zero (which it is) but then trying to say that it doesn't
apply for the FIRST wager of a series and consequently the majority of
right-side players can expect to be behind and remain behind. Utter
nonsense.

Regards,
Steen
WinCraps
http://www.cloudcitysoftware.com
========
A random walk based on a fair game is never expected to be "0" for an
individual player! Aggregate players, yes, individual player, no!

Since 0 is an impossibility on the first decision, the individual player
is expected to be slightly to the right or slightly to the left of
0....but not at zero.

As Alan pointed out, "slightly" gets smaller and smaller....but never
goes away.

As Mason pointed out...it's trivilous, and gives us no useful
information about the game of craps....at least not so far.

I know that I changed my "story", my first post was not definitive, and
as you, and Alan started pointing out any errors in that statement, I
modified my position. I believed then, and I believe now, that the
concept was valid....just not very significant is all.

JB

.

Relevant Pages

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