Re: True odds bets? Clams


Steen went to the 2-bet scenario, which leads to exactly the opposite
conclusion, and I saw the light. I think the real answer is that, as
Steen said, the "random walk principle" is only valid for equiprobable
fair bets.

Cheers,
Alan Shank
=======
No, the random walk works equally well for steps of different lengths as
long as the odds are fair.

Steen kinda pulled a fast one on me....I didn't realize it for
awhile....but using two trials, and stopping there, it is kind of
misleading. if you continue the expectation for three, four, five, and
so on, it alternates between ahead, behind, and even. So even with
different length steps, starting with a handicap of -1, expectation is
always 0 -1 no matter how you slice it.

Your program results were very interesting....I compared the difference
in where the different points alternated between more losers, or more
winners....the difference is evident because of the different lengths of
steps. 2-1 for a ten, 3-2 for a 9, and 6-5 for an eight. They do not
jump around randomly, but rather that they follow a pattern based on
step length.

Thanks for taking the time to do that program!

JB

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