# Requested Simulation for the Learning Impaired

"alan" <moneyla@xxxxxxx> wrote
Can we just do 1 million rolls with a passline bet and full odds. If
there were losses, we would add money to finish the million rolls. If
there are wins, money would not be added.

The objective: to find the "bottom line" after a million rolls.

(MoneyLA should specify a number of line decisions for his Clueless Simulation
instead of a number of rolls.)

These simulations will show that the house has held approximately 1.4% of the
total money bet on the passline.

(I suggest further that the same number be used to seed the random number
generator for two simulations ... a simulation with odds wagers and the same
simulation parameters without the odds wagers ... this keep the odds wager the
only variable between the two simulations.)

This will illustrate (to anyone but MoneyLA) that any money bet on the odds
wager has virtually no effect on the "bottom line" which is the innumerate
designation of Expectation. I say virtually because the result of the two
simulations will be the Actual Hold and not the Theoretical Hold. However, with
that number of decisions, the two values will be so extremely close as to be
practically identical.

The casino table game profit mechanism is explicit (see below). These
simulations will confirm what is already known. MoneyLA is learning impaired.
He apparently is requesting simulation to confirm as fact that which he has been
informed as fact on countless occasions.

However, his driving thirst for knowledge is not strong enough to learn to do
the indicated investigation himself so this requested simulation is clearly not
a matter of any real importance to him.

--
Onward thru the fog,
Mason

(.) Drop - the table buy in amount
(.) Hold - the amount the casino keeps of the table buy in amount.
(.) Handle - the total amount bet.
(.) Expectation - (Handle) * (Edge Percentage).
(.) Clearly, if Edge Percentage is zero on any bet, there is a zero Expectation
from that bet regardless of the Handle amount.
(.) Theoretical Table Hold - Expectation
(.) Zero Expectation bets do not increase the Table Hold.
(.) The Actual Table Hold Percentage (Hold divided by Drop) is the *key* measure
of casino table game revenue.
(.) An Actual Table Hold Percentage of 100% for any individual player does not
materially change the casino revenue given that any individual player is
replaced from the player pool. If such player replacement does not exist,
casino revenues are *lowered*.
(.) Actual Table Hold Amount approaches Theoretical Table Hold Amount as Handle
Amount increases.

.

• Follow-Ups:

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