Re: Redleathers Las Vegas Trip Report

I guess they are going to let the casinos on land in Biloxi and no
doubt we are about to witness the birth of the next Las Vegas.

As for my method of play, across now tens of thousands of documented
computer rolls and about 30 hours of live casino rolls a year, it looks
like I have about a 3.5% positive expectation play.

Once again, for those that are new to my posts from many many months
back: My basic claim is that probability theory fails to account for
the advantage of removing a bet. In other words it treats a bet that
once laid it is played the same as a bet that can be removed at anytime
by the player.

So it, probability theory, contends that a passline bet is a better bet
than say a lay 4 because the probability based statistics say it is a
better bet. Better is defined that in the long run one will win more
by making a passline bets than by making lay 4 bets because the
probability theory based statistics say that the house edge is better
with the passline bet than the lay bet.

But what about the ability to remove the lay bet anytime the player
might like to as compared with the passline bet being a once laid then
always played bet? Well probability has nothing to say about this
characteristic of the bet. It does't take the player's ability to
remove a bet into statistical account.

In fact probability theory adherents will tell you that it doesn't
matter at all--that the ability to remove a bet does not make it a
better financial bet in the long run.

In my view probability based statistics are strong indicators of the
long term outcome of a bet that cannot be removed, but the same cannot
be said about a bet that can be removed.

Probability theory adherents have the 19th century mathematical view
that a lay 10 bet has a particular statistical expectation when it is
in play and that it has no statisitical expectation when it is out of
play. This fails to account for the advantage one can glean from
removing the lay 4 prior to a 4 being rolled and the disadvantage to
the passline better of being stuck with his bet until resolution.

Now the next thing that is brought up is so what? If you are not
clairvoyant or spooky then you don't know that a 4 is coming and we all
know that the gambler's fallacy is the truely stupid belief that a roll
is "due." So unable to mentally resolve this conundrum, most gambler's
give up, read ALL of the books on craps out there which are in error,
and play the statistically more probable passline.

Notice that I am not making the argument against the passline which I
usually make--that it is a high variation bet and therefore not
advisable. It is a high variation bet where you can lose alot of money
with one throw of the dice and I never play it. This aside, the
argument I am explaining now is that probability based statistics
cannot account for player intervention in all of those unique bets
where the player can remove the bet. Notice the field bet is not one
of these since it is a one roll bet, neither are any of the come or
their darkside counter parts.

So probability theory simply leaves the ability to remove a bet
unaccounted for. It also ignores bets that have no impact too. Like
when you have a lay 10 and a 5 is rolled. Probability theory acts as
if this roll never happened since it had no impact on your outcome
since it wasn't a 10 or a winner 7. This is just my brief statement
that those of you who adhere to probability theory and make unremovable
bets are losing money while I have found a way to account for--gain a
mathematically provable financial advantage by understanding craps and
its mathematics beyond the information offered by probability theory.
It is not that Probability theory and the statistics based on it for
craps is not useful. It is a good tool to have in the bag. But
everything cannot be understood or fixed with a "hammer." Because of
probability theory there are some bets that I never make.
Unfortunately for too many craps players, there are many bets that you
should be making but don't because of probability theory based
statisitics. Kinda like a good idea or really useful information that
can kill you if that is the only thing one uses. Like driving on the
right side of the road when a semi is coming at you on that same right
side of the road. It's time to cross Probability Theory's double
yellow line and save your life by swinging to the left. This works
equally well politically speaking.

Redleathers.

P.S. If you want to really read something worth reading, then read
everything written by and written about Thomas Paine. Only six people
attended his funeral and his body was actually lost in history. But he
is the real father of democracy, the United States and the democracies
of modern France and Great Britain. A bunch of our founding fathers are
given far more credit than they deserve and some deserve none at all.
Alot that you think to be unquestionable truth, like Probability
Theory, like what the United States was supposed to be, like the Bible
being God's word, like Buddism being a religion (it is actually a
philosophy) turns out to be incorrect and sometimes are even lies.
Adhering to probability theory in craps just costs us money. Adhering
to some of the other things that most Americans have has cost us our
lives.

.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Redleathers Las Vegas Trip Report
    ... So it, probability theory, contends that a passline bet is a better bet ... by making a passline bets than by making lay 4 bets because the ... probability theory based statistics say that the house edge is better ...
    (rec.gambling.craps)
  • Re: Gary Carsons Greatest Hits
    ... On Sep 27 2011 3:03 PM, brewmaster wrote: ... never graduated from finishing school, he is an expert on statistics, ... probability theory, and logic. ...
    (rec.gambling.poker)
  • Re: Gary Carsons Greatest Hits
    ... On Sep 26 2011 7:20 PM, FL Turbo wrote: ... never graduated from finishing school, he is an expert on statistics, ... probability theory, and logic. ...
    (rec.gambling.poker)
  • Re: suggestion for books
    ... Disclaimer: I'm no expert statistician but that rarely shuts me up. ... stats is "part" of maths. ... I've had a book recommended to me _Introduction to Probability Theory_ ... "scope" of statistics, but this answer is my best shot. ...
    (sci.stat.math)