Re: A tale of Four Brothers (Money Management)

"basicstrategy777" <ninonistri@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote
> Your mathematical principles where in effect and precisely correct during
> my session at the craps table but, in my opinion, they were not the
> dominant reason I won or lost.

> However, short term, the
> use of charting, qualification of shooters, flow of the dice and money
> management has a much greater affect on how you will fare than the house
> advantage. I know you don't believe in such things but some of us do and
> they have served us well.

>In a luck game
>there isn't a whole lot you can manage other than your money and how much
>to bet...when to bet...how much to win...how much to lose....when to start
>and when to stop.

BS777 is entitled to play by and to express his opinion. I find the worth of
his opinions to be self-evident. They require no comment from me. However ....

Analytical thought requires that belief be proportionate to the evidence. The
overwhelming confirmable evidence is this ...

Given: A player makes some refined and recorded set of wagers while managing the
controllable things, such as your money and how much to bet...when to bet...how
much to win...how much to lose....when to start and when to stop and utilizing
such criteria as charting, qualification of shooters, flow of the dice and money
management.

Since they have been specifically recorded, that same set of wagers (type and
amount) can be made by other players using any criteria or no criteria to select
each bet from the set.

The fact is that there is absolutely no reason to prefer any player's winning or
losing results over any other while making the same set of bets. The aggregate
results of a sufficient number of these players will form a standard normal
distribution of results about the sum of the edge * action each wager in the set
of wagers. No individual player's position in this distribution correlates in
any way to the nature of the controls on the timing of these wagers that BS777
intuits that serve him well.

All of these factors listed by BS777 are demonstrably, confirmably irrelevant to
the result experienced by the player. None of them change the players chance of
winning. This is equally true for a set of bets for any number so the
misunderstood issue of long term or short term is meaningless. The only
relevant factor is that the same set of wagers be placed which insures a
consistent basis of comparison.

BS777 post of his unsubstantiated beliefs just illustrates that ...
"The MM crowd are just plain uncomfortable with games of pure chance and the
implications of games of chance for the perceived "skill levels" that they
require in order to be comfortable gambling. They are profoundly uneasy with
the idea of luck."

I think that the following quotation is helpful in thinking about the profoundly
credulous group that BS777 envisages that he somehow represents.

"Trust a witness in all matters in which neither his self-interest, his
passions, his prejudices, nor the love of the marvelous is strongly concerned.
When they are involved, require corroborative evidence in exact proportion to
the contravention of probability of the thing testified."
.... Thomas Henry Huxley

--
Onward thru the fog,
Mason

P.S.
BS777 ... Speaking of belief. I found your comparison of yourself to Columbus
to be most appropriate and instructive both as to your visualization of yourself
and your understanding of history. However, I missed your answer to my
question.

BS777
"They ridiculed Columbus too. You remind me of those people....people that were
eventually proven WRONG."

Mason ...
People that were eventually proven WRONG about WHAT?

I repeat my question ...
"Those People" that were eventually proven WRONG about WHAT by WHOM?
..............................................................................................................................

"basicstrategy777" <ninonistri@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:e323400e01040c1987a3bfaa51c58d62@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> mason
>
> Mathematical principles are true in the long term AND the short term; I
> don't think anyone is disagreeing with this. The math is perfect but
> sometimes the mathematicians that apply the math are not, as history has
> shown.
>
> There are some things I know:
>
> 1. You can win and you can lose in the short term.
>
> 2. In the long term you will lose. (although there is no guarantee of
> this).
>
> I don't think your example demonstates much of anything other than over
> time (10 years) the house edge works you over pretty good and if you bet
> more you lose more, due to the house advantage. However, short term, the
> use of charting, qualification of shooters, flow of the dice and money
> management has a much greater affect on how you will fare than the house
> advantage. I know you don't believe in such things but some of us do and
> they have served us well.
>
> Ultimately, the question after your session at the table is......did I win
> or did I lose ?
>
> Your mathematical principles where in effect and precisely correct during
> my session at the craps table but, in my opinion, they were not the
> dominant reason I won or lost.
>
> 777
>
>
>


.

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