Re: ALAN SHANK, PLEASE STOP

On 15 Dec 2005 04:17:36 -0800, golfer711@xxxxxxxxxx wrote:


>For Mr. Shank
>
>The other day I sent you a message.

No, you posted a message to a newsgroup, which is read by many people.

>It was clear and concise. I
>posted it sequentially to one of your posts yet you played the childish
>"Who Me" game and offered comments as to I wonder who he was talking
>to?

Do you really not know how to quote a message to which you're
replying? There are a lot of different newsreaders out there, and not
all of them present messages so that it's clear to what message a
given message is responding. That is why most people quote the
relevant part of the message, in addition to saving bandwidth by not
quoting irrelevant parts of the message.

>You commented on the chart and % for making 6 passes. I asked if you
>disputed the numbers.

The chart did not represent the chances of making six passes. It
represented the chance of making different numbers of points, ignoring
comeout decisions, using the weighted average probability of making
points. You posted this chart without understanding what it
represented. You did not even state what you thought the point of the
chart was. Since you seem to believe, like BS777, that the probability
of a series of events doesn't change as the events occur, I assume you
thought it meant that, after a shooter has made five point passes, the
probability of his/her making the sixth is .004 or so, because, at the
beginning, the probability of making six point passes in a row is
..004.

I assume that because you put this statement in another post:
[QUOTE]
>Based on the table given to me I would estimate the chance for the 6th
>pass, exclusive of a natural on the comeout, to be less than 1%."
[END QUOTE]

I asked you whether you actually believed that to be true, but you did
not respond.

So, in answer to your original question:

1. I dispute the meaning of the numbers, but once we understand they
represent passes on points only, they are correct.

2. I dispute your conclusion from the numbers, which shows you don't
know the first thing about probability and how it describes the game
of craps.

While we're at it, Golfer, here are a couple more quotes from your
recent posts:
[QUOTE]
>I wonder why the individuals cited (read the post Mason) would make
>such a calculation if it was meaningless? I mean if the chances for a
>PL winner is 40% why would anyone calculate a figure for the
>probability of making 5 passes? Take the 40% to the bank and do
>something else. Not the ultimate question in the universe but still
>puzzling.
>If the chance of success is 40% for 1 successful pass, why not consider
>the DP as "the" play with a 60% chance of winning?
[END QUOTE]

Are these the words of someone who actually plays craps? Does anyone
who actually plays the game (while conscious) think the DP has a 60%
chance of winning?

Golfer, you are so woefully ignorant of the very basic facts of craps
that I seriously doubt you actually play the game. You are nothing but
a troll.

Killfile,
Alan Shank

[END QUOTE]


.

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