Re: How do you win at craps?

On 7 Dec 2005 07:22:37 -0800, golfer711@xxxxxxxxxx wrote:

>I wonder why the individuals cited (read the post Mason) would make
>such a calculation if it was meaningless? I mean if the chances for a
>PL winner is 40% why would anyone calculate a figure for the
>probability of making 5 passes? Take the 40% to the bank and do
>something else. Not the ultimate question in the universe but still
>puzzling.
>
>Then let's look at another interesting item illustrated by the math so
>clearly illuminated.
>
>If the chance of success is 40% for 1 successful pass, why not consider
>the DP as "the" play with a 60% chance of winning?

I am really blown away; I really am. I knew you were pretty ignorant,
but...

The chance of a PL winner is .492929, so if the casino paid the DP
exactly the opposite, then it would have a positive expectation, not
anything near 60%, but .50707. That's where the "bar 12" comes from.
Golfer, I am really beginning to suspect that you don't actually play
craps at all. Or, if you do, you are almost totally unaware of your
surroundings, and are essentially incapable of absorbing any knowledge
from them.

The 40% (actually .40606) is the weighted average probability of
making a point; it is the probability of the PL winning when the bet
is NOT resolved on the comeout roll.

The table is interesting, but of no utility, since the probabilities
change after each point is made. That is, the probability of making a
point (the "generic" point) is always the same, but the probability of
any number of successive point wins, counted from the same starting
point, goes up with each point made.

Oh, Heeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeel! Why bother?


>The whole discussion illustrates (at least for me) that although math
>has a place in playing craps it is not the sole determining factor.
>40% is put out on the table here by the members of the board. Other
>"experts" have put forth the table above. There is a conflict.

There is only a conflict for the painfully ignorant. There is no
conflict for those who understand:

1) that the 40% is the weighted average probability of making a point
number
2) that the probabilities in the table are figured for the point in
time before the series starts
3) that they represent successive powers of .40606
4) that after a point is made, then probability of making the next one
is, still and always, .40606.


>Don't ya love this game?

I don't think you really play.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
.

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