Re: How do you win at craps?

On 6 Dec 2005 18:20:25 -0800, golfer711@xxxxxxxxxx wrote:

>JB the chart thing in my post is real and put together by either or
>both of the guys cited.
>
>In the theoretical world it could be true. At the rail these numbers
>are there.
>
>How can it be explained? The math boys are silent. I am waiting.
>Should I hold my breath?

You would be doing yourself a big favor if you held your breath -
forever, so you wouldn't have to go through any more of your life
confused and bewildered.

The chart in your post is an approximation of:

..40606 raised to successive powers

..40606 is the weighted average probability of making a point

So, each one is the probability of making 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6 points in
a row, disregarding comeout decisions.

However, your humorous mistake is in thinking that these
probabilities, which are all based on THE NEXT SIX points, continue to
apply after each point is made.

No one with even moderate intelligence who plays craps as much as you
SAY you do could POSSIBLY take those numbers seriously in the way you
have. So, I have to conclude that either you don't really play craps
or you are as stupid or stupider than MoneyLA.

Really, do you actually believe that, if a shooter has made 4 points
in a row, that the odds are 100-1 against him/her making another?

Let me ask you a question.

What is the probability of tossing four heads in a row?

What is the probability of tossing four heads in a row, if the first
toss is tails?

Does the answer to that question say anything to you?
If not, then you are truly beyond hope.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
.

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