Re: How do you win at craps?

On Wed, 07 Dec 2005 03:13:34 GMT, The Midnight Skulker
<cvlewis@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

>> The higher HA is not on the comeout roll, where you can ONLY win or
>> establish a point. The seven is still a winner, but the 11, 2, 3 and
>> 12 do not resolve the bet, but become points. Since the payoff is
>> still even money, and you have added point numbers that are less
>> likely to roll than the regular-craps point numbers, your chances of
>> winning after a point is established are much lower. That is where the
>> higher HA comes from, not from the comeout roll, which actually has a
>> 100% player advantage when it's resolved.
>
>The higher HA comes entirely from converting a sure winner, the comeout
>11, into a probable loser. A small part of this added HA is offset by
>converting sure losers, the comeout craps, into only probable losers.

That's true, for sure. It's also true, however, that the comeout
decision can only be a win.
>
>> For even more fun, I figured out the average length of a series and
>> hand:
>>
>> series: 1.833 rolls, since every point is resolved on the first roll
>> after the comeout
>
>What is a series? How is every point resolved on the first roll after
>it is established?

Whoops! I must be taking MoneyLA pills. Duh!

OK, a series is one pass-line decision, a term from SysSim I think.
My figure is totally wrong, of course, since the extreme outside
points added in Never Craps are resolved more slowly than the regular
ones. Somehow I was thinking that, since all the numbers are either
point numbers or seven, every roll would resolve the bet. However, I
was overlooking the basic fact that ONLY ONE number is the point for
the pass line. Bzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzt!!!!

OK, the (I hope) correct figure is 4.16 rolls/decision, 7.90
rolls/hand. More rolls/decision than regular craps, because the
comeout resolution only occurs 1/6 of the time, not 1/3, and the
extreme outside points resolve more slowly. However, shorter hands
because 52.6% of decisions are seven-outs, compared to 39.6% for
regular craps.

Sheesh.
Alan Shank
.

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