Re: No result is likely - Part II
- From: "alan" <moneyla@xxxxxxx>
- Date: 29 Nov 2005 13:08:10 -0800
I think Ive read a version of this in just about every craps book at
Barnes and Noble. I can't wait to read part 3 and your breakthrough
information.
In the meantime, Im glad you finally realized this:
The "law of large numbers" states that the sample probability
approaches the single-trial probability as the number of trials gets
larger and larger. So, the casino concludes that, since they are open
24 hours/day, 7 days/week and have several craps tables open all the
time, and they have enough money to pay this bet even if the players
get quite lucky, if they can get people to make this bet they will
reach the point where they can rely on the players winning very close
to 1 out of every 36 of these bets. So, after sufficient time has
elapsed, the house will have won very close to 35/36 and the players
1/36 of these bets.
Unfortunately for players, we don't play as an aggregate-- we play as
individuals. The casino plays against all players as an aggregate, we
play against the casino individually-- so we don't share with other
players or share the "math" that the casino plays by.
Shank, why don't you reverse your thinking-- take it from the
standpoint of the "player" and not from the standpoint of the "casino."
Consider the disadvantage that each player has individually, and
without the law of large numbers which does not apply to individuals?
.
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