Re: Good economic news! + metalworking

On 2009-02-15, Gunner Asch <gunner@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
On Sun, 15 Feb 2009 06:38:03 -0800 (PST), "dcaster@xxxxxxx"
<dcaster@xxxxxxx> wrote:

On Feb 14, 9:08 pm, Gunner Asch <gun...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:


1932 was probably the worst year of the Great Depression....so we havent
hit bottom yet by any means

Gunner

Hard to say if we have bottomed or not. The stock market has stayed
fairly level during the last three months. Nucor is up about 10% in
the last three months. GE is down about 25%. Danaher is flat.

The housing markets vary a lot depending on where you are and how hot
the market was. As Ed said the housing market is stable in his
neighborhood in NJ.

Housing in California continues to drop like a stone down a hillside.

My guess is that we are near the bottem, but are likely to not move up
much anytime soon. The local government is looking at raising taxes,
which will keep a damper on things. The same thing will happen all
around the country, but will be worse where the government expanded in
accordance with Parkinsons Law. Or at least it corrolary. Government
expands to spend all the tax revenues in boom years and raises taxes
during any busts.

We have a second wave of subprimes coming do in the next several months
from what I understand, and a credit card implosion on the horizon as
people who have been funding their shotfalls on their cards all hit the
absolute limits and go into default

Ive been told by someone who is very very smart on the subject..that we
wont hit bottom until 2010 or early 2011.

I hope he is wrong...but so far..he hasnt been.


I have been wrong often, but I would think that 2010 is a reasonable
estimate.

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