Re: Union Millwrights

On Nov 10, 8:54 pm, "Ed Huntress" <huntre...@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:




You're engaging in cracker-barrel theorizing. If you want to do that, I
could apply the same level of logical sophistication and rejoin that
improving productivity reduces the need for workers, which applies downward
pressure on wages. In fact, the last two decades "prove" it: we've had an
extended period of remarkable productivity increases, accompanied by
dead-flat wages for lower-middle-class workers. (In that light you may find
a recent Onion article interesting: "Study Finds Working at Work Improves
Productivity.")

The downward pressure on US wages has been the offshoring. Lots of
available laborers offshore. Did not have much of an effect until we
got much cheaper shipping from larger ships and use of containers.
Because of container ships, the offshore labor now has an effect on
the onshore labor.

If on the other hand you think it terms of the whole world, then you
no longer have dead flat wages. The wages in other countries has been
going up. So the whole earth wages have been rising.


http://www.theonion.com/content/news/study_finds_working_at_work

This kind of theorizing will get us nowhere. In fact, no theorizing we're
likely to engage here will get us anywhere worthwhile. This is a subject
that's been tackled for decades at a high level, in history, economics, and
political science. You could see the recent work on "the arc of the middle
class." And you could get your assumptions knocked off balance by looking up
an important paper published some years ago about the "Great Compression,"
which shows that the real kick in the ass for the middle class happened all
at once, during WWII. Before the war, workers were struggling their way into
middle-class lifestyles, uphill against the Depression and deflationary
trends. After the war, everybody was suddenly there. The blowtorch heat
applied to the economy by the war and deficit spending started the flywheel
spinning. The numbers are amazing.


You are saying that WWII was much more of a force than the Unions?
I'll drink to that.



There is no forced equilibrium. This is the natural equilibrium.
Companies need skilled labor. The fact that white collar workers earn
more than unskilled labor even though they are not unionized, destroys
your argument that unions were necessary to bring wages above
subsistance levels.

Not at all. You'd need to present a lot of facts to show that white collar
wages during the '20s and '30s weren't the consequence of "freeloading," as
the unions put it, on unions' gains. For example, you'd have to track the
relative timing of various quintiles of income, backed up with demographic
distinctions that really identified the white-collar workers as a class.
That's serious work, and not something that lends itself to off-the-cuff
hypotheses.


First the White collar workers in the South and the farm states did
not get much freeloading on union gains in wages. You have to
remember that the Unions were not very widespread. But those farm
areas did benefit a lot from all the goods they could buy. Farming
productivity increased a huge amount. Which meant the farmers had more
money to spend and the mecrchants benefited from that.

Second how much free loading can one get from union gains, when the
white collar workers are earning more than the blue collar workers.
The unions were trying to reduce that difference.




Look at China. As far as I know unions are not prevalent there. But
there are tremendous increases in productivity there and the wages are
rising as a result.

That's a whole different set of dynamics. Wages still suck. Women in the
interior still make 17 cents/hour for assembling Reeboks, and it has been
argued that China's wages are driven by extraordinary demand that would
never occur in an economy that wasn't getting a free ride on enormous
consumption by high-wage foreign trade partners -- notably the United
States.

I agree wages in China do suck, but they are rising in terms of what
they can purchase. Can't really agree with free ride, however. Both
China and the US are benefiting from the trade. If the US was not
benefiting, we would not be buying goods from China. There is no such
thing as a free lunch.


You're trying to revise some pretty well established ideas in economic
history, Dan,

I don't think I am trying to revise any economic ideas. Just pointing
out that productivity has to increase in order to have a higher
standard of living. Unions are not noted for their influence in
raising productivity. A middle class required increased
productivity. It apparently does not require unions at this time.
You have not given any arguments as to why it required unions in the
thirties. The same result might have happened without unions. But it
might have required more time.

Dan

But a decent study of the professional literature would take you a lot less
time and would be more illuminating, besides.

--
Ed Huntress


.

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