Re: Value of super rare books?

R. Totale wrote:

>John, John, you're =way= overthinking this.

It's part of my charm!

>My point (which I thought could be gleaned by any thinking
>reader from my first message, but which I later stated outright
>if it was unclear) was that a simple search of Internet online
>book sites does not by any stretch of the imagination mean
>that a particular book is not available for sale =anywhere=.

Yes, that's absolutely true.

>This information might be useful to the OP if he didn't realize
>it, and does not want to look like a fool when he goes to sell
>his book. I did not mean to imply that for every Shakespeare
>First Folio listed online there were 1000 available and not yet
>listed.

Right. I realise that, but the OP and one or two other posters do seem
to be assuming that one can apply a kind of mechanical formula.
Something like, "If a book cannot be found online, double its price
compared with other comparable books" or "start the bidding at $100",
or something like that.

The danger with your statistic is that it may replace one formula with
another ("If there's one listed online there are probably a thousand
out there not listed"), and I just want to show why that is not so.

>But without leaving my chair I can put my hands on a book
>(which is not for sale) published in 1894 in Illinois which is
>not only not listed for sale on any Internet site, but is also
>not in any library reporting to OCLC Worldcat, including
>the Library of Congress.

I have at least one similar work (the account of a young Victorian
woman facing death, presumably published as a tribute after she died).

>But nobody cares about it, and even if they did, this
>particular copy (which for all I know is the last one in
>existence)

There ya go! If one came up on the internet, then we could say there
were two in existence. But it would be anyone's guess whether there
were more than that.

>I would not be in the least surprised to learn that 100 similar copies
>are sitting unnoticed and uncared about in dusty little antique shops
>and bookstores all over the country.

Maybe so, maybe not. We have no way of knowing.

>The 1000:1 was off the top of my head

Ah! The scientific mind at work!

>- it could be 100:1, could be 10000:1

Well, but there are lies, damned lies and statistics. What I'm saying
is that many of the 100 or 1000 or 10000 are going to be popular works
- Agatha Christie paperbacks or whatever - and there's no saying
whether a virtually unknown work will or will not be among them.

The true figure for any given title might be 10000:1 or 1000:1 or
100:1. But it might also be 10:1 or 0:1. To make an educated guess, one
has to take into account such factors as the number of copies in
holding libraries around the world, the nature of the subject matter,
the collectibility of other similar titles, etc..

>That any given title from any particular time period is not being
>offered online =at this moment= means just that and nothing else.

That's right. It doesn't mean that there aren't any more out there, but
it doesn't mean that there are.

I think what the OP really needs to know is that scarcity - real or
merely apparent - is not necessarily a guide to value. Sometimes it is.
Murakami's Pinball 1973 in English and the first book in English on the
subject of bonsai trees would be examples of books on my shelves which
only come onto the market occasionally and get snapped up quickly by
collectors at several hundred dollars a hit.

Often, though, it isn't. Your 1894 Illinois book and my languishing
Victorian's account may be one of a kind, but there just aren't (at
least as far as we know) people out there who would put a premium on
them anyway.

John
http://rarebooksinjapan.com

.

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