Re: Global warming

Other factors involved are the llipitcal orbit of the earth around the sun,
and the wobble of the earth spinning on it's axis. All of those factors can
vary the amount of energy received from the sun as well.

<dbohara@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:1135026946.802891.223620@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Another thread mentioned global warming so I thought I'd post some
> thoughts on the subject.
>
> First, the so-called "Hockey Stick" curve by Mann showing that the late
> 20th century to be the warmest in over 200 years has been completely
> discredited for using faulty statistics and cherry-picking data sets.
> However, it is known that there has been a warming trend since at least
> the 1970s, it has warmed by .3-.7 degrees C since 1890. Lets settle on
> .6 degrees. The question is what causes the warming, humans or natural
> causes.
> Advocates of man-made or Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) say that
> man has caused it by increasing (by 30%) the amoint of CO2 in the air.
> Advocates of natural causes currently blame the sun for increased
> brightness.
> As an advocate of the sun theory (until proven otherwise), I point out
> that NOAA calls CO2 a "trace gas" in the atmosphere and that water
> vapor is a FAR greater source of global warming than CO2.
> It is not possible to directly use historical data to investigate the
> solar brightness because changes in the atmosphere would mask real
> changes. However, since 1979, we have had satellites that do measure
> the solar brightness above the atmosphere and it is well documented
> that the sun has gotten a little brighter. Furthermore, it can be
> shown with this data that the solar brightness varies with sunspot
> number that HAS been recorded since about 1700 AD on a daily basis.
> Sunspot number varies over an 11 yr cycle with a possible 90 year cycle
> on top of that but this 90 yr cycle is not well established. Except
> for this last sunspot cycle, sunspot count has increased since the
> 1890s.
> During the so-called "Little Ice Age" of the mid-1800s where there were
> unusually cold winters with crop failures and even the Thames River
> froze, there were NO visible sunspots so it can be inferred that the
> sun was temporarily dimmer then and when sunspot activity picked up
> winters got warmer. Since the 1890s, sunspot count has increased while
> the average earth temp has increased.
> Using sunspot count as a proxy for solar brightness and calibrating
> this with data taken over sunspot cycles since 1979, one can calculate
> a change in solar brightness isnce 1890. One CANNOT go outside the
> range of sunspot count change since 1979 to extrapolate to the zero
> sunspot count of the little ice age because the data may behave in
> strange ways outside the range of actual measurement.
> This calculated solar brightness increase since the 1890s easily
> explains almost all (if not all) of the .6 degree change in temp since
> the 1890s. This is a far more direct measurement than the tree-ring
> proxies that AGW advocates use as the tree ring data is known to be
> skewed by so-called CO2 fertilization (tree rings get broader as CO2
> increases leading to the appearance of increased temps). Furthermore,
> this very direct calculation of increased solar brightness does not
> even take into account some probable amplification factors such as
> increased water vapor as the temp goes up slightly due to solar
> brightness increase. Furrthermore, changes in stellar brightness are
> very well documented for many stars and it would be a major surprise to
> solar physicists if the sun did NOT vary.
> In summary: Measured and extrapolated increases in average lower
> atmosphere temps of earth are most likely due to changes in solar
> brightness and not due to increased atmospheric CO2.
>


.

Relevant Pages

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  • OT: Global warming
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