Re: A GUIDE TO GLOBAL WARMING FOR THOSE EDUCATED IN THE UNIVERSITY OF LIFE
- From: Andre Jute <fiultra1@xxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Sun, 4 Jan 2009 15:28:54 -0800 (PST)
On Jan 4, 10:45 pm, Ben C <spams...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
On 2009-01-04, Andre Jute <fiult...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
[...]
A major test of a statistical model which presumes to predict the
future is that it must, given a start date sometime in the past,
accurately map the intervening known period. But none of the vaunted
models of the future put forward by the IPCC as predictors of world
temperature a century or two hence could map out the past reliably.
These models fell down at many points and for many reasons. But, most
strikingly, all fell down badly at two historical points. They are
called the Medieval Warm Period, when for several centuries it was
much warmer than it has been ever since, including in the 20th
century, and the Little Ice Age, when shortly after the reign of
Elizabeth the First and for the period covering the rise of the
Industrial Revolution, people skated annually on the Thames.
In most of the (pro-Global-Warming) TV documentaries I've seen, the
Medieval warm period _was_ attributed to an extended solar minimum. The
idea is less solar wind, more cosmic rays, more cloud formation, and it
gets colder.
The beginning of the Little Ice Age corresponds with the Maunder
Minimum in Sun surface activity.
It all goes into the computer model, and the more accurate its
"hindcasting" the more reliable extrapolations from it into the future
are supposed to be. This was always the case that was made. They present
a graph that tracks the ice core data convincingly, and then diverges
from about 1950, underestimating the temperature. Then they factor in
manmade CO2 and hey presto it tracks perfectly again until the present
day then shoots up in the near future.
The main problem with it is just how accurate is the computer model?
Steve McIntyre, of the McIntyre & McKittrick team who exposed Mann's
shoddy works, is a businessman and engineer. At one stage he
complained that Mann's algorithm was so "highly tuned" (clearly a
euphmism for crooked) that, fed with random noise, it would produce a
hockey stick! It never seemed to have occurred to McIntyre, an
upstanding, honest citizen, that Mann wasn't doing science but
creating a political instrument that would speak in the desired tongue
of his paymasters.
But how can anyone trust the IPCC's models, which were tuned (let's
keep it polite!) to track the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice
Age, and then retuned to track Mann's now disgraced flat hockey stick
and to provide a peak at the end of the 20th century, and now that the
MWP and LIA are reinstated, will be returned to track them again. A
model that easy is anyone's whore. No wonder the IPCC and its
"scientists" spread syphilis to the truth of whatever it touches.
How
much was it just "tweaked" to hindcast so accurately? It would be nice
to have more direct evidence of the effect of CO2 in the atmosphere on
climate.
Yes. I would say much stronger than nice. Crucial. Essential. We don't
know shit, those clowns at the IPCC have thoroughly muddied the waters
with their political games, but we cannot even decide on a research
strategy until we know something about the effect of CO2 in the
atmosphere on climate. That will be a longterm study, none of this
IPCC shit of announcing a startling conclusion before you've done the
research. Sometimes I wonder if there are any climate scientists at
all who remember how to do proper research.
Actually, Michael Mann, with his gross transgression of the mores of
decent scientific research, has probably done the entire scientific
community a service by drawing attention to the self-serving lack of
standards in the climate "sciences" and at the IPCC.
It's easier to find an honest trader in the Baghdad souk than an
honest scientist in the field of climate research. On RBT both the
self-proclaimed "scientists", Chung and Weiner, were struck out for
trying to cheat. Scientists, none for 2. That also means Truth, none
for 2. Pity.
Andre Jute
Chipping away patiently at ignorance and prejudice
.
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