Re: How fast was Cancellara?

On Jul 11, 3:07 am, "b...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx" <b...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
On Jul 7, 8:13 pm, "amit.gh...@xxxxxxxxx" <amit.gh...@xxxxxxxxx>
wrote:

On Jul 7, 6:22 pm, Kurgan Gringioni <kgringi...@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

Turn the graph on its side and it's half of the classic bell-shaped
curve.

dumbass,

your "observation" is non-sensical. you aren't looking at a probabilty
distribution. if you binned the riders' times and plotted you would
have a bell-shaped curve centered at about 48 kph

what's notable are the gaps from 1st-2nd and 2nd-3rd. in a competitive
TT the chung chart should look sort-of logarithmic, plateauing at the
fastest riders. without the "flip up" at the top.

Dumbasses,

I agree with Greg. Cancellara's time is less suspicious than
your ideas of what the distribution "should" look like. Let's
say it is (as Dan pointed out) mostly non-prologue specialists
with a few specialists thrown in. One might expect the
non-specialists to have sort of random ability. Even if you
think it's a normal distribution, though, normal in what
variable? Time? Speed? Power? Something that's
normal in one will be skewed in the others. Plus the
specialists are going to skew the distribution, creating
a tail to high speeds.

dumbass,

true, but it is speed that is plotted on that vertical axis.

the increase in physical ability required to go from 52 to 53 kph is a
lot more than the difference to go from 46 to 47 kph. that is why i
would expect to see the curve flatten out.

.

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