Re: But the Borders are Secure now..........

On Jul 3, 8:56 am, Fred Fredburger
<FredFredbur...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Ryan Cousineau wrote:
In article <OPadnXnt2oSL_BfbnZ2dnUVZ_sCin...@xxxxxxxxxxx>,
Fred Fredburger <FredFredbur...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

cyclin...@xxxxxxxxx wrote:
On Jul 2, 9:58 pm, Davey Crockett <daveycrocket...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
Watch five Wetbacks jump the fence as Bush spouts BullShit about how
Secure the Border is for a TV Cameraman

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPA75H5uVIo
But remember that France is simply letting them in direct from Al
Qaida training camps.

I do find it somewhat humorous that the news services are attempting
to imply that the bombers in Great Britain and Scotland aren't Al
Qaida because they weren't all that professional. To listen to them
you'd have to wonder how professional a suicide bomber can be. Does
practice make perfect?

And do you notice how they're strictly avoiding making the connection
between all of the Al Qaida chiefs killed or in custody and the
falling "professionalism" of the terrorist attacts?

Good thing we have the American media to keep us so well informed.

I'm curious ... is it your opinion that we are now safe from meaningful
attack by Al Qaida? You didn't say that, but it could be inferred from
what you just wrote.

Well, it can be inferred that we are "safer" from Tom's statements
above, but "safe" is, logically speaking, putting words in his mouth.

Sure, that's why I asked for his evaluation of the risk and noted that I
was running the risk of making an invalid inference. Or perhaps phrasing
the inference badly.

There's a general question here: how does one evaluate the risk of a
terrorist attack? The problem, as I see it, is that all evaluations are
subjective. I can live with that.

That's right, and that's good, especially since you don't have a
choice.

http://www.mises.org/austecon/chap4.asp

And it isn't just about marketplace goods.

What I find difficult is that those
evaluations run a very wide range. If you were a policy maker, how could
you make reasonable decisions? I don't think you could. I think you
might be reduced to gauging popular angst on the subject and responding
to that. Then next year, when popular angst died down or heated up
again, you'd be taken to task for last years' decisions. But, and here's
the unfortunate thing, neither this year nor next year would you be
making policy based upon a risk assessment. Just on popular opinion. So
you'd be a yo-yo or else very unpopular. Possibly both.

http://www.amazon.com/Democracy-God-That-Failed-Economics/dp/0765800888/

Statism, the god that failed.

Maybe I'm wrong with that, maybe realistic assessments are available but
politicians follow public opinion regardless. Maybe the media finds
realistic risk assessments boring and therefore doesn't report them.

To the degree they claim realism, maybe we can have some moneyback
guarantees. "We" always like a good bang for "our" buck.

"Every theory must ultimately meet two tests: one, that of internal
consistency, the other that of consistency with reality." -- Frank
Fetter, stating the obvious.

Now to circle back, since I believe Tom to historically have evaluated
the risk posed by Al Qaida to be higher than I have, it would be
interesting to know if Tom is now feeling more secure than he used to as
a gauge of popular opinion.

You could go simple on the explication of evaluation. Ask him what it
means to "need" a 12t.


.

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