Any Current USAF Manned Spacecraft Capability??
- From: T.L. Davis <tldavis341@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Tue, 04 Nov 2008 23:07:46 -0600
Just read on CNN that the current shuttle feet, if used for 100 more
launches, results in an estimated vehicle loss rate of 79%. Current
chance of a vehicle loss is 1:80 per launch; just ten more launches
and there's a 1:8 chance you lose crew, vehicle and payload. The
shuttle is to be retired until the Ares I-V/Orion system
(Saturn-IB-V/Apollo replacement) is available. Unfortunately, this
ties us to Soyuz (of Gemini/Apollo vintage, imagine that) for the next
4-5 years, assuming no cost overruns/delays/cuts. Otherwise, no
access to the ISS. The usually optimistic NASA estimates for a lunar
mission are 2015 with Ares V/Orion.
Atmospheric suborbital launch has been revived with Rutan's
SpaceShipOne and investment by Virgin Galactic (SpaceShip Two). Is
orbital launch for access to ISS even possible using this or a similar
method?
Question: Could the USAF now have (or do we even need) any manned
launch alternatives in the interim such as derivatives of DynaSoar or
better yet, an enlarged X-15? SpaceShip Two is remarkably similar to
the original DynaSoar design.
The existence of a USAF military shuttle with kinetic energy weapon
("Rods from God") capability has been suggested.
T.L. Davis
.
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