The Cease-Fire Deal and Life in Tbilisi

The Cease-Fire Deal and Life in Tbilisi

* Aug. 14th, 2008 at 10:35 PM
For photos and the original article, visit:
http://venik4.livejournal.com/14665.html

Mark Deen and Reed Landberg of Bloomberg have beat me to the punch with
their Russia's War With Georgia May Reopen U.S. Rift With Europe. Next
time I will have to type faster. If you follow the new from Russia and
Georgia, you are probably aware of the extraordinary effort by Nicolas
Sarkozy to broker a cease-fire deal. The terms of the agreement heavily
favor Moscow, allowing its troops to “implement additional security
measures” not just in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, but across all of Georgia.

The peace deal quickly gained support from Italy and Germany, while the
UK and Poland wanted to see the EU adopt a tougher line against Russia.
Condoleezza Rice traveled to Tbilisi to publicly show Washington's
support for Saakashvili, while privately trying to persuade the Georgian
president to accept the French-brokered peace deal.

Another sticking point of the cease-fire deal is Russia's insistence on
excluding any references to Georgia's territorial integrity and instead
using words like “sovereignty” and “independence”. Today Russia's
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said: “One can forget about any talk
about Georgia's territorial integrity because, I believe, it is
impossible to persuade South Ossetia and Abkhazia to agree with the
logic that they can be forced back into the Georgian state.” While the
US reiterated its support for Georgia's territorial integrity, Lavrov's
point of view is clearly far more realistic.

There is another aspect to the wrangling over Georgia's territorial
integrity concept. South Ossetia and Abkhazia are Russia's most
important leverage against Georgia. For as long as these two provinces
formally remain a part of Georgia, there will be no peace in the
country. Georgia will remain in limbo and unable to fulfill its
aspirations to join the EU and the NATO. If Georgia suddenly decides
“The hell with South Ossetia and Abkhazia – Moscow can have them”,
Russia will gain territory but will lose leverage. Thus, there is a
slight possibility that, after a good tug-of-war with the US in the UN
Security Council, Moscow will eventually agree to some form of
“territorial integrity” language in the final peace deal. The situation
will then return to prewar status-quo and the situation will start
escalating from there.

In other news, as the fog of war over Tbilisi clears and patriotism
subsides, people start asking questions. I was finally able to get
through to one of my contacts in Tbilisi to some first-hand information.
Needless to say, he is not particularly happy with my blog and thinks
that I am a pig-headed Ukrainian who needs to learn tolerance and expand
his geopolitical horizons. He's probably right. In any case, Georgians
are starting to question the wisdom and, indeed, the sanity of their
president.

Patriotism is gradually turning to depression as Tbilisi residents
encounter their retreating army and begin to realize that this was not
the overwhelming victory over Moscow trumpeted by their president. By
nature, Georgians are optimists (albeit melodramatic ones and prone to
severe mood swings) and depression quickly gives way to anger. It's not
that they are surprised they lost the military action – in the back of
their minds most Georgians never seriously expected to defeat Russia –
but they are appalled by their army's lackluster performance and by
Saakashvili's great display of personal cowardice during his PR trip to
Gori.

For many years Saakashvili has been telling his country that the West
was firmly behind all his policies. America's humanitarian aid and the
EU's good wishes aside, this turned out not to be the case. As they are
opening cans of USAF-delivered “Spam”, Georgians can't help but wonder
if Saakashvili was the right man for the job. Apparently, Saakashvili
himself is growing increasingly wary of things to come. The opposition
is waiting for the wave of wartime patriotism to subside and preparing a
major assault on their fearless leader. Saakashvili's former
brother-in-arms and the country's ex-Defense Minister Irakli Okruashvili
was once again denied entry into Georgia. Okruashvili and Saakashvili
grew apart in 2006. Okruashvili was fired from his post as the defense
minister, charged with corruption, arrested, and later released on
parole. He accused Saakashvili of trying to assassinate him and flew to
France, where he received the status of a political refugee. He was
tried in-absentia by a Tbilisi court and sentenced to 11 years in jail.

In a phone conversation with Saakashvili on August 12, Okruashvili asked
for a pardon and announced that he was “ready to support the president
despite the many disagreements that led to the intense standoff.” The
same day, during an anti-war rally in Tbilisi, Saakashvili brought up
the conversation with his former defense minister and said “I can forget
the insults for patriotism is our higher goal.” Nevertheless,
Okruashvili was denied entry to Georgia. The reason for this decision by
Saakashvili is quite simple: about a year ago Okruashvili aligned
himself with Saakashvili's opposition and was considered by some as a
possible presidential candidate. Saakashvili is feeling his public
support slipping away and the last thing he needs in Tbilisi is another
opposition figurehead.

Other than that, life in Tbilisi is business as usual: gas, electricity
and hot water are available only on select days and even then just for a
few hours. This has been the case for many months and has nothing to do
with the war. Just over a year ago Saakashvili proclaimed that Georgia
was no longer reliant on Russian electricity. Apparently, Georgian
authorities were able to reduce the country's consumption of electricity
by thrusting the country into the dark ages for a few hours every day.
Georgia's sad economic state, however, did not stop Saakashvili from
spending nearly a billion US dollars on rearming and training the
country's small army. Money well spent, Misha.

By now many of you probably have seen Larry King's interview with
Gorbachev and Saakashvili's “rebuttal”. Gorbachev talked about the need
for peace and the long history of Russians and Georgians living together
in harmony. Saakashvili called Gorbachev Kremlin's PR man, mentioned KGB
two dozen times, refused to announce his support for the French-brokered
peace deal, and generally made a complete ass of himself. In other
words, business as usual in Tbilisi.

Finally, some of you may be wondering why Russian armored columns appear
to be aimlessly roving around Georgian countryside, confusing the hell
out of CNN's Anderson Cooper. Some American political analysts are
saying that this is Russia's way to thumb its nose at the US. I am sorry
to disappoint them: Georgian army withdrew so quickly that they left
behind huge stashes of weapons and ammunition. Left unsecured, these
stockpiles will no doubt be looted and used to fuel a civil war in the
country. Perhaps this is exactly what the Georgian commanders had in
mind when they left all these weapons behind. Saakashvili wants NATO
presence, even if limited, in the country and an escalating ethnic
conflict is the only way he may get his wish.

--
Venik
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