The Difference

I apologize for the length of this, but it's something I've wanted to discuss for a long time. Hope some find it worth the read.

This year's Chase is shaping up in near textbook form. The two best drivers & teams are and will probably battle it out closely right up until the end. Unfortunately for Jeff Gordon fans, Jimmie & Chad will win again if I'm right.

Both drivers & crew chiefs are excellent, use the best equipment in the sport, and have access to the same testing & technology information. One might have a slight edge on the other in certain areas, but at the talent level they're all at it's pretty much a wash IMO.

So how can I say the #48 team will win over the #24 without sounding like a foolish fanboy or worse?

Jeff has driven his *** off this year and proven he's still a great, great racer. It's obvious that personal problems off track and insufficient chemistry with certain crew chiefs the previous 5 years have prevented him from being his best. The competition level has also increased dramatically these last years IMO, but once Jeff's personal life got stable (marriage) and his focus returned to previous intense levels (fatherhood) we're once again privileged to witness one of the greatest drivers in NASCAR history driving true to form.

Steve Letarte immediately showed when he took over during the latter half of the '05 season that he had a lot of talent. He struggled at the beginning of '06 but eventually got everything on track and Jeff back into the Chase. The Chase last year was an up and down effort that started to make many wonder if he really was good enough to be paired with such a great driver, but Steve put all those doubts to rest in '07 as he helped lead his team to a truly fantastic season by any standards.

Still, the #48 bunch will win. No way, you say? Hmm...

Chad is an outstanding crew chief whose talent and ability to win Championships go without question. He has more experience and may be slightly better than Steve, but Steve's shown enough brilliance and assembled an excellent enough record that IMO can hold his own and won't be the weak link when the #24 guys succumb.

So now you're ready for me to start spouting about how great Jimmie is and how he'll be the deciding factor. I wish it were the case and that easy. Fact is, the way Gordo is racing this year no one is going to do better. Jimmie is an awesome driver, and I believe he owes Jeff credit for much of it. Jeff may not have taught or mentored that much directly, but being on the same team and having him as a role model has given JJ an advantage few have ever received. Jimmie's success & polish are in many ways attributable to his emulation of Jeff, which he's still proud to say he does. Head to head these guys are almost equal as Jeff's stronger in some areas and Jimmie others. I'd still give Jeff a slight edge in overall talent, but Jimmie's still getting better most of the time while Gordon has pretty much peaked IMO. Jimmie will eventually exceed the master, and as any great teacher will tell you, they didn't to their job correctly if such wasn't the case.

So if all the major players are so evenly matched, how or with what criteria can anyone predict a winner?

Simply put, the answer is: Strategy!

I've watched the #48 team closely for years and wanted to discuss this, and now appears to be the best time. I'm not talking about the 2 tire strategy which won the Atlanta race last week. That was a very good call by Chad and adjustment by the guys on the fly, but it wasn't rocket science. I give them credit for a win they took with cleverness and luck, but it's their -main- strategy executed weekly which I believe is the most impressive & responsible.

Doesn't it make people wonder how these guys can have -so- much success, so consistently, and for so long in an era of the sport with such a high level of competition? Yes, as previously discussed, they're Champions because individually they strive to have the whole package and as few weaknesses as possible, but as Tony Stewart & others have shown, you can win (for awhile at least) with less.

What I believe Chad & Jimmie are doing is very simple & obvious, yet enough other teams aren't copying or succeeding at anywhere near the same level. So what's this great strategy you've had to endure my droning on to reveal?

-Endgame-. While some out there are playing Checkers, Chad & Jimmie are playing Chess. I remember years ago during an interview when they first started saying it, and they've stuck with & executed it to perfection now for at least 2 years straight.

Notice how calm Jimmie and Chad are on the radio during a race? You rarely, if ever, hear Jimmie getting upset about his car or problem in the pits. That's because they're not concerned with what's going on the first couple hundred laps of a race. Their goal* is simple and they stick to & focus on it intently every race:
*The car should be the absolute best it can be -after- the last pit stop.

This is nothing new and something everyone wants & supposedly strives for, but are they really? How many times do you see cars get better after one stop and then worse after the next? Jeff did it often last year especially during the Chase, which helped ruin his chances IMO. Jimmie & Chad rarely make an adjustment/change that has to be undone on a following stop. They don't take back that extra turn of wedge or pull a recently installed spring rubber out because each stop is a stepping stone to what they want their car to be at the end of the race. Chad can make JJ ultra fast on the next stop, but if he's off a little or does something that he knows might not work with conditions at the end of the race he'll skip it and just make Jimmie a little better in the short term. That's why (esp. the last 2 years) the #48 car keeps getting a little better every week as each race progresses and Jimmie continually works his way towards the front. All you have to do is look at his top 10 percentage and streak to see it, and from there he's in position to win which he's done an amazing 31 times in 6 years.

They've also applied this strategy to their season as a whole, which is why they tend to drop off at the end of every season just before the Chase. They've admitted (in so many words) that killing themselves for races which don't mean much is a poor strategy. These guys are all tired, and putting it on cruise to rest up for the Chase is only prudent. Their focus and energies are all on the final races, which is why they finish almost every season with unbelievable records.

I could be making entirely too much of this, but after watching & paying attention closely I believe this is the difference & reason they've had so much success and why they'll edge out the #24 team who's having a magnificent season. Steve can be brilliant and get Gordon to the front often, as he's proven this year. Question is, can he get him to the front at the end of these final 3 races where it counts the most?

I grew up just outside a housing project where we had to compete against guys/teams who were older, bigger, stronger and vastly outnumbered us. There wasn't a single sport we couldn't eventually start to beat them consistently in for the simple reason that we learned to use our brains and implement a strategy which ultimately led to victory. It all seemed so simple to us, but they never seemed to catch on and just wallowed in their frustration & surprise. I can't help shake the feeling the #48 guys are doing the same thing to everyone else in the sport, even their rival & teammates. Watch for yourselves and see, this is how Jimmie beats Jeff this year.

BTW I do believe members of the sport & media occasionally stop by and read our comments. I know I would in their place, if just to see some outside & honest opinions about myself and profession. I wouldn't be at all surprised if some media members come here to get story ideas when they have trouble coming up with something new & different to write about. Should these theories turn out to be true and eventually popular knowledge, I hope Jimmie & Chad will forgive me. I'm leaving soon and had to get it out. lol 8^D



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