Re: Same wheelgun used on both cars

Dave Baker wrote:
"Phil Carmody" <thefatphil_demunged@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message news:87d4yk9g3n.fsf@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
a <a@xxxx> writes:
Bigbird wrote:
Dave Baker wrote:

I'm rather surprised at this. When the tool is 'performance critical'
like a wheelgun with built in torque setting, logic would suggest
you'd use different tools on each car to minimise the chances of a
tool failure affecting both cars in the same way. Same with refueling
rigs etc. No doubt this is something they will now learn from.
More tools = more chance of failure IMO and not simply because of any
inherent problems with the equipment.
You have quite a 'unique' view of probability.
Assume P(failure) = eps.
P(0 failures from 1 sample) = (1-eps)
P(0 failures from 2 independent events) = (1-eps)^2

(1-eps)^2 < (1-eps)

You're right that Bigbird's view is unique, as there's only
one correct mathematical view. There are, however, many wild
and wonderful incorrect views apparently one of which you
hold. And no, I don't care which one that is.

With separate tools there might be a higher absolute chance of failure but a much lower one of a failure taking out both cars.

Bingo - Say each tool has a 0.5% failure rate. Then the chance of both tools failing is 0.5×0.5 or 0.25%

Sure, the more you bring - the more you increase the chance that *a* tool will break, but you will still have all the others to use - they're modular, you know.

a
.

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