Re: When I Win Tonight's PowerBall Lottery



Creamy Goodness wrote:
On Mon, 20 Feb 2006 23:37:19 -0000, "Bigbird"
<BigBird.usenet@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Creamy Goodness wrote:
On Mon, 20 Feb 2006 19:15:47 -0000, "Bigbird"
<BigBird.usenet@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Creamy Goodness wrote:
People who don't understand probability are going bat***
around here, driving hundreds of miles, spending hundreds of
dollars, all for a 146,000,000:1 chance at $365,000,000.

...Struck by lightning in the US is 700,000:1 per year.

Given that (FAKE in your own words) example I guess we can call
you Mr Guano for the rest of the day.

http://www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov/medical.htm

I have already pointed out that you are mistaken if you believe
that quoting such nonsensical examples shows any understanding of
probability there is no need to humiliate yourself further by
quoting the example again.

...But you're a renowned fuckwit.

As I suspected you do not appreciate the difference between a
mathematical calcualtion and an observation. You have no real
understanding of probability or statistics (Big clue for you
there;) ).

Do you really believe there is a 1 in 700,000 chance that you will
be struck by lightning in any year?

Not at all, but it's, even if based on merely reported strikes, the
only solid number available.


Solid? It is absolutely of no value whatsoever as a predictor of an
individuals probabilty of being struck by lightning.

It is merely a satistic and not neccessarily at all accurate.

Hint for you there, fuckwit.

I could have used the figure based on an estimated rate of
under-reporting, but that would be as fallacious as, well, rasf1
budget estimates, ie fuckwitage.


To illustrate you complex and supposed superior understanding of probability
you chose a dubious and almost certainly under reported statistic as a
predictor for an unknown enviroment.

Now that's fellatious and you suck big time.

It is absolutely clear that you understand neither probability nor
statistics.

[snip blah blah] same old Creamy ***, you do not understand and even if you
did by some accident grasp even a grain you'll never admit it so you just
say "fuckwit" a lot.

Now that is fuckwitism.


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