Re: OT: Eerie Predictions Of A Katrina-Type Hurricane

Here is a good analogy written by ShamikaServers owner. I don't have the patience to write something this long on this subject...

Originally posted by Oreo[SS], http://www.shamikaserver.com/ssforums/showthread.php?p=56586#post56586

There are a lot of factors working here. First off this issue isn’t something that was discovered a couple years ago. This has been a concern since Betsy’s trip through New Orleans back in the late 60’s. The levee system around NO was designed to handle a Cat 3 storm. When they were built up after Betsy to a level that could be afforded. In other words there was only enough money to build these levees’s so high knowing that a larger storm would top them with ease. Thus the issues began and the waiting game has been upon us. Many times we have had close calls but have been lucky. Several years ago we have some serious rains dump a huge amount or water in NO. The waters started to rise and they started cranking the pumps. Guess what only about ½ the pumps actually worked. Wake up call. Since then they have brought most of the pumping stations online.

Evacuation routes…
Well this is something that had never really been in place until the last couple years. Once a hurricane becomes a viable threat to the NO area the state issues a recommended evacuation of these areas then steps it up to a mandatory evacuation. Last year we did this twice and learned a lot about the issues we face evacuating a couple million people from South Louisiana. Luckily during this learning period the treats were real but missed these areas. The first evacuation was a complete debacle as 1/3 of the evacuees were trapped in their cars while the storms passed. So the study began and Contra-flow was instituted in the evacuation plan. This effectively makes all access highways and interstates outbound traffic only. This worked flawlessly as the evacuation of NO was complete before the storm came ashore. Yes I said complete which brings use to the next issue.

South Louisiana people have a heritage if not a tradition of riding out hurricanes. There are people that simply will not evacuate no matter what the situation. Most of these Storm riders for a lack of a better term have the means and ability to leave but don’t. What do you do? Well most people would say “You make them leave”. Ok in a city the size of NO how do you find these people to make them leave? You have about 24 hours before the storm hit and are in the middle of a evacuation where do you get the man power to find these people to “make them leave”? You don’t and you can’t. These people make there own choices and live or die by there decision. Here is where the next issue take place…

There are thousands of people that basically just exist in New Orleans. Let make this clear right here… I DO NOT mean Black People… I mean there is, as Mayor Nagin put it, “A class of people” (black and white) that lives in New Orleans that has nothing. They are poor people living in a poverty situation and basically exist from day to day. These people don’t evacuate as most of them do not have the means to do so. They have stayed year after year surviving the storms and going on with life. How do you place a number on these people? This is to me a Huge unknown factor and a major variable in what we are seeing today 6 days after the storm.

So what do you do for the people that can’t get out? Open shelters right? Without an exact number and with the possible threat of water backing up in the city where do you open a shelter? The Super dome has been a shelter from storms for years. It size alone allows for a huge number of people to be protected and provides light, water and facilities for those that stay behind. It has always been the place to go. You made a comment about the people staying at the Hyatt. The Hyatt and several other CBD (central business district) hotels have provided shelter for city officials and yes other people that could afford to stay there. Remember even in times of crisis there is a charge. The city officials staying at the Hyatt is not any different then the president, his cabinet and high ranking military heads sheltering in a remote command center. I think the image of Hyatt is clouding the fact that yes it was better then the super dome but it was also the command center from which the city officials could work, communicate and see the surrounding areas. The removal of these people before the people in the dome was a matter of viability to allow the people in charge (infrastructure) to continue to work through the situation and try to provide information and details of the current situation. Having been in the USMC Death I’m sure you understand this method of process. Sure there may have been some of those people that were affluent and got out but overall it was a solid decision. Mayor Nagin has not left New Orleans he has been there day in and day out in the same conditions that rest of the people of New Orleans have endured. No power, no power, limited food and no facilities. What you hear in the interview is a man that has witnessed every minute of this and has reached his point.

So the hurricane is coming, mandatory evacuation orders are issued, the city has evacuated and many of those that couldn’t head to the Super dome and/or other shelters to weather the storm. The storm actually missed New Orleans by 30 miles and passes to the east which in itself (believe it or not) is a blessing. The pumps are pumping, the winds are blowing and the crowds have been searched and are now inside the safety of the Super dome. Everything so far has gone to plan and procedure. The storm passes and at this point it looks as if we may have dodged the bullet once again but then it happens. The winds on the western side to the storm are blowing across Lake Pontchartrain and the surge of the waves is starting to top the levees. At least one of the pumps is having over heating issues and several others are failing. The water is coming in and now there is at least one levee breach allowing the Lake to flow into the city of New Orleans which is 7 feet below sea level. This is the point at which Katrina’s issues became unique and unlike any hurricane to ever ravage the United States. Had the levees not failed the relief effort would have rolled in and the cleanup would have started. The people in the Dome would have headed out and the normal process of hurricane procedure would commence. But it couldn’t. With the city flooding there was no where to setup base camp for the effort. The waters were rising and the basic designs of many building were starting to show their flaws.

The super dome for instance has generators but these generators only allow for basic lighting. In most construction where are the generators placed? Ground Level, which in this case became flooded. In hospitals where are the cafeterias? 1st floor and again with the hospital generators became flooded. I really think we will see some new designs for these buildings in the future.

So now we have several feet of water flooding in, the dome of jammed with people and so is the convention center which apparently NOBODY realized it had people in there and the people that have stayed behind are now headed to the dome to escape the rising waters.

Chaos is breaking out and the NO police dept as well trained as they have to handle situations they were never prepared for. In there efforts to help people they are being fired on. Here they are trying to maintain order and assist and in return they are being fired upon. The situation is getting out of hand and our top governmental leaders are holding press conferences to update us about how things are going.

Communication has been one of the biggest issues during this whole ordeal. On Tuesday they were discussions of Martial Law but it was never put in place. The department of Wildlife and Fisheries took there enforcement agents and all the boats they had and headed to New Orleans. In a single day (Tuesday) these agents rescued 3000+ people from roof tops and attics. These are people that didn’t or couldn’t leave. That was 3000 people… The WLF department had performed above and beyond any expectations and while doing so were also being fired upon. These guys never gave up and are still working boats to rescue people even as you read this. The Local Coast guard starts air lifting people from roofs with the limited resources they have to work with.

FEMA has not entered the state and we are up to our asses in alligators. The dome roof had several small failures, what was thought to be about 10 – 15,0000 people in the dome ended up being 25k + and that doesn’t include the convention center, roof tops, attics, hospitals, schools or universities. Chaos has broken out and the NO police are trying to keep it under control but they are out gunned, and have little or no backup. An officer calls out on the radio that he is OUT of Ammo and need backup. That has NEVER been heard in the city before. Thing are going down hill rapidly and no help is seen anywhere.

Day three after the largest disaster in the history of the United States and the city of New Orleans and the State of Louisiana are still on their own.

The other issues is the while everybody is screaming New Orleans, New Orleans, New Orleans there are other areas that are devastated and in need of assistance. People are on their roof tops and trapped in attics all over south east Louisiana. This storm didn’t just hit New Orleans it hammered all of South East Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. The response from our government was slow, our officials in Louisiana have adapted to situations that have never been experienced before in the history of our country. Our resources and efforts have been exhausted and to a Mayor who had been in these conditions watching as the citizens of his community are dying and the waters are rising utter chaos has taken control it was time to speak up and get somebody’s attention.

There were emergency plans, evacuation routes and shelters in place. But this storm and the subsequent events afterwards surpassed the plans and expectations of everyone. You can’t plan for an event like this. You can only develop ideas, processes and put them into action when needed. Once the catastrophe has happened and the recovery has begun only then can we evaluate the problems and redevelop the ideas, plans and hopefully better prepare for the future.

I don’t see the Mayor playing the CYA card I see a man that has endured events that we can not begin to understand and crying out for help.

I could go on for hours but I realize that this has grown from a couple comments into an essay. My question is why did it take so long for the government response?

On the flip side the Rev. Jesse Jackson has seen fit to grace us with his presents and make this an issue of Black and White. It didn’t take long for the political machine to get rolling on this. Is it not bad enough that people are dying and lives have been destroyed? This type of help we don’t need. Hey Rev how about you spend some time with the WLF Agents pulling people off roofs instead of point fingers and screaming “It’s because these people are Black”. I think maybe you could get a better picture if you were trying to help a person while your brother is shooting at you from another building.

I’m not going to go any further with the political aspect of this but I do feel that the support, reinforcements and supplies that are now here have come too late.
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