Re: IS DRILLING A SOLUTION?

Dave Head <rally2xs@xxxxxxx> wrote:
That does not translate to, "won't cross a road".

What else would you want to say this says?

Prior to road placement, caribou were found in a single,
more-or-less continuous concentration roughly centered
where the Milne Point Road was subsequently built. After
construction of the road, a bimodal distribution with
separate concentrations east and west of the road was
clearly apparent (Fig. 4.4) (Smith and Cameron 1992),
indicating avoidance of infrastructure by calving caribou.
http://www.absc.usgs.gov/1002/section4part1.htm
"Section 4: The Central Arctic Caribou Herd - Part 1"
By Raymond D. Cameron, Walter T. Smith, Robert
G. White, and Brad Griffith

It translates into *exactly* what I said... a lattice of roads
connecting 20 drill pads would have a disastrous effect on the
Porcupine Caribou herd. That is the opinion of virtually *all*
of the caribou biologists who have done field work on the North
Slope.

The *facts* are that calving caribou cows do not cross roads.

Its astounding that you
think you can get away with such an assertion.

It is the repeated observation of virtually every caribou
biologist that has done field work on the North Slope. The
astounding part is that you deny it anyway.

Avoidance of petroleum development infrastructure by
parturient caribou during the first few weeks of the lives
of calves is the most consistently observed behavioral
response of caribou to development.
http://www.absc.usgs.gov/1002/section3part5.htm
"Section 3: The Porcupine Caribou Herd - Part 5"
By Brad Griffith, David C. Douglas, Noreen E. Walsh,
Donald D. Young, Thomas R. McCabe, Donald E. Russell,
Robert G. White, Raymond D. Cameron, and Kenneth
R. Whitten.

Note that it is "the most consistently observed behavioral
response".

We all know how animals
behave... they're not smart enough to even recognize what a road is, and
definitely not smart enough to get their carcasses run down by the cars and
trucks on it.

*Look* at the studies. The more traffic on the road, the
farther away the caribou cows stay. They *clearly* recognize
roads and are sensitive to the traffic.

And you clearly are not a caribou biologists and have no knowledge
whatever about how the react to anything. Why are you trying to
tell *me* about caribou?

No wonder people believe that environmentalists live on spaceships.

Your state of denial noted, spaceship and all...

On Sat, 29 Apr 2006 23:17:01 -0800, floyd@xxxxxxxxxx (Floyd L. Davidson) wrote:
Dave Head <rally2xs@xxxxxxx> wrote:
....
How dumb do you think we are? Nobody's going to believe you when you come
across with boners like this.

Your ignorant bluster is astounding.

Prior to road placement, caribou were found in a single,
more-or-less continuous concentration roughly centered
where the Milne Point Road was subsequently built. After
construction of the road, a bimodal distribution with
separate concentrations east and west of the road was
clearly apparent (Fig. 4.4) (Smith and Cameron 1992),
indicating avoidance of infrastructure by calving caribou.
http://www.absc.usgs.gov/1002/section4part1.htm
"Section 4: The Central Arctic Caribou Herd - Part 1"
By Raymond D. Cameron, Walter T. Smith, Robert
G. White, and Brad Griffith

Damn, even the references you give are quoted out of context to mislead. Here's
the 1st paragraph's subject sentence:

Note that it is not out of context, and this paragraph does
*not* change the purpose nor the intent of the above quoted
statement. (I would note off hand that your paragraph count
is also incorrect. This is from the second paragraph, no the
first.)

With surface development continuing to expand westward from the Prudhoe Bay
petroleum development area (Fig. 4.1), concerns arose that the resultant
cumulative losses of habitat would eventually reduce productivity of the
caribou herd.

and then the 2nd:

The 3rd paragraph...

Those concerns, though justified in theory, lacked empirical support.

You accuse *me* of quoting something out of context??? How much
more out of context could anything be than what you just quoted?
It is totally unrelated to what I quoted, despite your claim
otherwise.

Moreover, you cut out the context that explains what it does
mean!

Do I need to read any further? Nope... hypothesis, conclusion, all we need to
know. Twisting something in the rest of it is basically disingenuous.

So lets just look at the context of what you quoted, and see
what it actually is saying (cites deleted for brevity):

From the mid-1970s through the mid-1980s, use of calving and
summer habitats by Central Arctic herd caribou (Rangifer
tarandus granti) declined near petroleum development
infrastructure on Alaska?s arctic coastal plain (...).

With surface development continuing to expand westward from
the Prudhoe Bay petroleum development area (Fig. 4.1),
concerns arose that the resultant cumulative losses of
habitat would eventually reduce productivity of the caribou
herd. Specifically, reduced access of adult females to
preferred foraging areas might adversely affect growth and
fattening (...), in turn depressing calf production (...) and
survival (...).

Those concerns, though justified in theory, lacked empirical
support. With industrial development in arctic Alaska
virtually unprecedented, there was little basis for
predicting the extent and duration of habitat loss, much less
the secondary short- and long-term effects on the well-being
of a particular caribou herd.

In other words, they had a theory, but had not done any studies
to demonstrate that the theory was in fact correct.

Furthermore, despite a general acceptance that body condition
and fecundity of the females are functionally related for
reindeer and caribou, it seemed unlikely that any single
model would apply to all subspecies of Rangifer, and perhaps
not even within a subspecies in different geographic
regions. We therefore lacked a complete understanding of the
behavioral responses of arctic caribou to industrial
development, the manner in which access to habitats might be
affected, and how changes in habitat use might translate into
measurable effects on fecundity and herd growth rate.

They note that there are much larger concerns than just simply
road avoidance in a simple form. They needed to study the
direct effects of infrastructure, but they also needed to study
how that indirectly affected caribou in other ways in order to
determine what the overall effect would be on population.
Selection of calving areas, selection of nutrients, insect
avoidance, and several other considerations come into it, and a
complex program to study the biology involved was necessary.

Our study addressed the following objectives: 1) estimate
variation in the size and productivity of the Central Arctic
herd; 2) estimate changes in the distribution and movements
of Central Arctic herd caribou in relation to the oil field
development; 3) estimate the relationships between body
condition and reproductive performance of female Central
Arctic herd caribou; and 4) compare the body condition,
reproductive success, and offspring survival of females under
disturbance-free conditions (i.e., east of the Sagavanirktok
River) with the status of those exposed to petroleum-related
development (i.e., west of the Sagavanirktok River).

They set about to design a program, based on the 4 points listed
above, to provide the necessary information.

Our interest is *not* why they did the study, or even how they
did it. We just need to know what conclusions they eventually
were able to draw from the study. And that is why I cited the
conclusions, not the reason for doing the study (as you did,
trying to twist them to be conclusions rather than a set of
reasons.)

Here is one of those conclusions:

Avoidance of petroleum development infrastructure by
parturient caribou during the first few weeks of the lives
of calves is the most consistently observed behavioral
response of caribou to development.
http://www.absc.usgs.gov/1002/section3part5.htm
"Section 3: The Porcupine Caribou Herd - Part 5"
By Brad Griffith, David C. Douglas, Noreen E. Walsh,
Donald D. Young, Thomas R. McCabe, Donald E. Russell,
Robert G. White, Raymond D. Cameron, and Kenneth
R. Whitten.

Now, given you said that wasn't so to start with, and I've shown
you where to find the data indicating that it is exactly the
case... you are unable or unwilling to understand the
information provided, and even go so far as to try distorting
it in the damnedest way.

But even if you don't understand it, the facts are still
*exactly* as I originally stated: 20 drill sites connected via a
lattice of roads will effectively block the Porcupine Caribou
herd from their prime calving grounds, and virtually *all*
caribou biologists who have done field work on the North Slope
agree that will be a disaster.

Here is an abreviated selection of the peer reviewed literature
cited in the article that last quote is from. (You might want
to compare some of the names..., such as Cameron and Whitten.)

Cameron, R. D., D. J. Reed, J. R. Dau, and
W. T. Smith. 1992. Redistribution of caribou in response to oil
field developments on the Arctic Slope of Alaska. Arctic
45:338-342.

[A dozen other cites for peer reviewed literature describing
how caribou avoid roads deleted.]

Now, would you like to back up and make another guess at how
caribou react to roads, and whether that is significant in
ANWR?

You had no answer before, and still none now.

--
Floyd L. Davidson <http://www.apaflo.com/floyd_davidson>
Ukpeagvik (Barrow, Alaska) floyd@xxxxxxxxxx
.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Ahnuld nails it squarely
    ... calving grounds", that the caribou would find another place to GET BUSY. ... Caribou don't breed in ANWR, ... Why is it critical that this 'particular herd' be successful? ... decline if oil exploration were allowed on the coastal ...
    (rec.sport.football.college)
  • Re: IS DRILLING A SOLUTION?
    ... have caused caribou to move calving away from virtually all oil ... calving cycles in the 1002 Area of ANWR? ... Herd calves on the coastal plain of ANWR. ... studied for more than 30 years by a few dozens of biologists. ...
    (rec.autos.driving)
  • Re: Ahnuld nails it squarely
    ... Caribou don't breed in ANWR, ... report says its a small herd, about 5% of the total alaska population. ... Not a big deal, doesn't really change the arguments, since 26% is still relatively small, particularly when talking about a globally abundant subspecies of a globally abundant species. ...
    (rec.sport.football.college)
  • Re: IS DRILLING A SOLUTION?
    ... indicating avoidance of infrastructure by calving caribou. ... Porcupine Caribou herd. ... Animals don't particularly ... deer seem to attempt to cross it anyway, ...
    (rec.autos.driving)
  • Re: Ahnuld nails it squarely
    ... calving grounds", that the caribou would find another place to GET BUSY. ... Caribou don't breed in ANWR, they nurture calves there. ... Why is it critical that this 'particular herd' be successful? ...
    (rec.sport.football.college)