Re: The CW -- Expected Average Viewership vs. The WB and UPN?
- From: "WQ" <wq@xxxxxxxxx>
- Date: 17 Jul 2006 15:28:42 -0700
KalElFan wrote:
"WQ" <wq@xxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:1153165197.734648.285690@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
... It certainly won't double UPN or WB's numbers...
We all agree on that (you, me, Alan, Ian). I'm not sure I agree
that this can only be done by season averages though. I
think a slightly better measure will be how much EXISTING
shows, on average, have increased. If we see an average
increase of 1 million viewers per show for example, that would
be 16.9% for Smallville. And I am talking viewers here -- pairs
of eyeballs. I know you still like households and I'm not intending
to debate that, but to be clear I'm talking viewers.
There's no way that Smallville will automatically see a 16.9% increase
for a show that's going into its sixth year just because there'll be
"one network less". It's erroneous thinking, because the alternative
to Smallville is whatever will be on any of the umpteen cable networks
or computer time or family time or socializing time, anything else but
Smallville....
You can't know this without knowing how stronger or weaker The
CW is in each market. I know there are a few markets where
they weakened, because they were forced to take the Tribune
block for example and in some markets the other station may
have been better. But Tribune includes KTLA. WPIX, and is
WGN now The CW when it wasn't before? So they may have
gained a stronger station there in Chicago? Same thing with
other markets. The crossposter says reach has increased
from 88% to 95%, but that doesn't mean much if the 7% is
digital stations way up on the tier. It's STRENGTH of the
affiliates within each market that may be the much bigger
effect here, and other than anecdotal "I'm worse off here in
[Anytown, USA] because...." I haven't seen much analysis
of that.
Stronger affiliates have more viewers for their local and
daytime programming, better coverage WITHIN their market,
the ability to crosspromote better and advertise more and
so on. That's why WPIX and KTLA for example, can often
win their timeslot in a demo whereas other WB or UPN markets
never had a chance. It's the same reason 7th Heaven only gets
7 million, whereas on CBS it might get double that. STRONGER
affiliates, not reach is the issue. If you just looked at reach you
might think the CW should pull in 95% of what the Big 3 get,
because the latter have virtually 100% coverage and that's only
5% more. Again, a market-by-market analysis of affiliates is the
only way to analyze this properly, or at least it has to be part of
the analysis.
William George Ferguson said:
If you want to, google a thread WQ started here titled "6-Net
Season-to-Date Averages".
--- Thanks, William, for coming up with the subject line, I forgot what
it was - and it was MY thread! Anyway, as I included in it, here are
the top-rated returning series to CW - top-rated in terms of what was
the best rating each show earned during the last May sweeps:
5.0 7th Heaven
3.9 America's Next Top Model
3.6 Gilmore Girls
3.0 Smallville
2.5 Smackdown
2.5 Supernatural
2.3 Girlfriends
2.2 All of Us
2.2 Everybody Hates Chris
2.1 One Tree Hill
1.5 Veronica Mars
For just about all of the above shows, they got as good or better
ratings than what they normally got during the regular season. These
are Nielsen's household ratings figures. When you average them all
out, you get 2.8. Once you factor in what The CW's two new series are
expected to get, which'll likely be less than 2.8 for each of them, or
certainly average out to less than 2.8 for the two of them, that brings
the overall average down to 2.7. And then when you factor in whatever
advantages CW will have in terms of what kind of affiliates and reach
they finally end up with, we can add a .03 [or the equivalent of about
350,000 extra households] to round out the average total to 3.0. This
is best case scenario. If I was going to be super generous, I'd say
3.2 tops, but that would've been more likely if The CW slotted 2 or 3
additonal new shows, one, maybe two of which, might've become 3.5
rating hits, meaning another Gilmore Girls or Top Model. So you see,
this is where the math doesn't favor The CW doing that much better than
UPN or WB. It will do better, but don't expect it to ever overtake FOX
in weekly or season or Sweeps ratings. Its shows are just too old for
that, averaging 4.5 years and getting older, never mind the fact that
CW hasn't even carved out an interesting identity for itself other than
it's the same old UPN-WB but put together. Yawn.
.
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