Re: Deal Or No Deal

Bill Ranck wrote:

You also appear to be indicating that "any good statistician
will tell you" that there is always an advantage to switch
cases in the situation described above.

And, I believe there is.

You're mistaken.


In the first pick you have a 1 in 26 (or however many cases)
chance of picking the $750,000 case. At the end you can
switch to a 1 in 2 chance.

When the contestant is down to the last two cases (the one originally
selected and last to remain unselected), there's a 1 in 2 chance of
revealing either of the two unseen dollar amounts, regardless of which
case is opened.


In this show you *know* if a high value case is remaining.

Yes, but nothing has occurred to manipulate its whereabouts. It's
equally likely that the higher value is contained within either
remaining case.
.

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