Re: Deal or no deal

Default User wrote: 
Steven L. wrote:


Default User wrote: 


Here is how it was presented in the question to her column:

In September of 1991 a reader of Marilyn Vos Savant's Sunday Parade
column wrote in and asked the following question:

  "Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of
three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You
pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the
other doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He
then says to you, 'Do you want to pick door No. 2?' Is it to your
advantage to take the switch?"


Notice that it makes no reference to LMAD at all. 

The original question might have, but the specific reference may have
been edited out by Ms. Savant for some reason.  To anyone reading her
column, it would still be obvious what game show the writer was
asking about.  He sure wasn't talking about Jeopardy.




True, but relatively irrelevant. Either the situation as described
would arise on the show, in which a contestant should follow her
advice, or it never did. If it never did, then the question is moot, as
you can't follow her advice for a situation that doesn't occur.


What part of the words "idealized case" didn't you understand?

This was an idealized and deliberately simplified case, with the messy details left out even though a full game analysis would require those details. It's no different than reading a book on chess in which they discuss pins and other tactics, even though the total board configuration may not be exactly the same as the situation you'll face in your next game. If that were not so, then there would be no point in reading books on chess because they'll never deal with the exact games you're liable to play in your own life.



--
Steven D. Litvintchouk
Email:  sdlitvin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me.
.

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