Re: What I learned from Katrina
- From: Rob Jensen <ShutUpRob@xxxxxxx>
- Date: Mon, 05 Sep 2005 18:29:36 -0500
On 5 Sep 2005 09:16:15 -0700, "bklyntv@xxxxxxxxx" <bklyntv@xxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
>
>Rob Jensen wrote:
>\> -- now that building codes in CA are *much* stronger than they were
>> even 20 years ago just to take quakes into consideration, I don't
>> think Californians have much to be concerned about about "The Big One"
>> other than *maybe* a few hundred ( substantially < 1000 ) dead a
>
>
>Are you for real? They didn't retrofit the building OLDER than 20
>years, which is most of them. There are highway overpasses, millions of
>homes, the Golden Gate and countless other bridges. A major quake has
>every chance of devastating CA as it did 20 years ago.
Dude, Loma Prieta (which I lived through) killed only 70 people or so
(versus untold thousands in Louisiana last week). Northridge killed
far fewer than that, even with un-retrofitted buildings. And
Northridge was a decade ago and Loma Prieta sixteen years ago.
Btw, the overpasses HAVE been in the process of being retrofitted
*statewide* since the Northridge quake and IIRC, are just about done,
if not fully completed.
That's besides the fact that most single-story buildings (ie: most
houses) and even most two-story buildings, retrofitted or not, come
through even the big quakes fine. Much of the business areas in the
SF Bay Area (where I'm from) have been built in the past two decades,
mostly during the Internet boom of the 90's, and the LA and San Diego
areas (I've lived for several years in SD, too, but currently live in
the midwest) are in constant states of building and rebuilding. I
have more fear of a Big Quake hitting the New Madrid fault here in the
Midwest because they've had *little* retrofitting of *anything* and
not much in the way of current construction besides. This midwestern
Red State should fear falling apart from a Big Quake far more than CA
should.
Also, the devastation in a quake is generally concentrated nearest the
epicenter, losing power as it radiates outward in all directiosn from
that epicenter. Most CA quakes have epicenters either 1) in the
Pacific Ocean too far out, beyond the continental shelf, losing much
of their force before they even reach shore or 2) in sparsely
populated areas. Some of the major quakes (like Northridge) have
epicenters in populated areas, but again, the major damage was
relatively limited.
IMO, the newsmedia are going to find themselves underwhelmed by how
*little* devastation there's going to be during the next Big Quake
that hits CA (up to a 9.5 or so, IMO), compared to what Louisiana's
going through.
-- Rob
=============================
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Doom, but that's only because the girls went to do something
even more dangerous.
GIRL: What?
LORELAI: Have you ever heard of a Brazilian Bikini Wax?
.
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