Re: OT: Trent Lott's home destroyed by Hurricane Katrina

Bushwhacker wrote:
>
> That's an understatement. I truly wonder, given the problems of its
> location -- exacerbated by global warming...

It's no surprise that you'd believe such a thing, and even if I cite
numerous articles that disprove it (and there are more than those cited
below), you'll likely say something to the effect that they're all part
of the "overwhelmingly conservative media" covering up the truth about
global warming. It's ironic that you accuse Bush & Co. of preying on
people's fears, but you uncritically buy into the global warming fear
package. But maybe you'll surprise me. Let's see:

From
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/30/national/30cycle.html?ei=5065&en=9e0e24b0c5ee1d90&ex=1125979200&partner=MYWAY&pagewanted=print
--

Because hurricanes form over warm ocean water, it is easy to assume
that the recent rise in their number and ferocity is because of global
warming.

But that is not the case, scientists say. Instead, the severity of
hurricane seasons changes with cycles of temperatures of several
decades in the Atlantic Ocean. The recent onslaught "is very much
natural," said William M. Gray, a professor of atmospheric science at
Colorado State University who issues forecasts for the hurricane
season.

>>From 1970 to 1994, the Atlantic was relatively quiet, with no more than
three major hurricanes in any year and none at all in three of those
years. Cooler water in the North Atlantic strengthened wind shear,
which tends to tear storms apart before they turn into hurricanes.

In 1995, hurricane patterns reverted to the active mode of the 1950's
and 60's. From 1995 to 2003, 32 major hurricanes, with sustained winds
of 111 miles per hour or greater, stormed across the Atlantic. It was
chance, Dr. Gray said, that only three of them struck the United States
at full strength.

* * *

>>From http://www.reason.com/hod/pm081705.shtml --

Pielke told me that, "analysis of hurricane damage over the past
century shows no trend in hurricane destructiveness, once the data are
adjusted to account for the dramatic growth along the nation's coasts."


You would think that reviewers of Emanuel's paper at Nature would
have thought to ask whether, in fact, there was evidence for
increasingly powerful storms.

But they didn't. There is just no incentive in the scientific community
to kill the remarkably fertile global warming goose, a beast that feeds
on public fears.

The federal outlay on climate research is now $4.2 billion per year,
roughly the same amount given to the National Cancer Institute. The
climate research community sees a grave threat when research shows
there's no threat from the climate. So papers that hawk climate
disaster get superficial reviews and uncritical headlines, while those
that argue otherwise are "shameful."

* * *

>>From http://www.nationalreview.com/lowry/lowry200508300805.asp --

Has global warming increased the frequency of hurricanes? One of the
nation's foremost hurricane experts, William Gray, points out that if
global warming is at work, cyclones should be increasing not just in
the Atlantic but elsewhere, in the West Pacific, East Pacific, and the
Indian Ocean. They aren't. The number of cyclones per year worldwide
fluctuates pretty steadily between 80 and 100. There's actually been a
small overall decline in tropical cyclones since 1995, and Atlantic
hurricanes declined from 1970 to 1994, even as the globe was heating
up.

It seems that Atlantic hurricanes come in spurts, or as the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration puts it in more technical
language, "a quasi-cyclic multi-decade regime that alternates between
active and quiet phases." The late 1920s through the 1960s were active;
the 1970s to early 1990s quiet; and since 1995 - as anyone living in
Florida or Gulfport, Miss., can tell you - seems to be another active
phase.

But if hurricanes aren't more frequent, are they more powerful? Warm
water fuels hurricanes, so the theory is that as the ocean's surface
heats up, hurricanes will pack more punch. An article in Nature -
after questionable jiggering with the historical wind data - argues
that hurricanes have doubled in strength because of global warming.
Climatologist Patrick Michaels counters that if hurricanes had doubled
in their power it would be obvious to everyone and there would be no
need to write controversial papers about it.

Indeed, if you adjust for population growth and skyrocketing property
values, hurricanes don't appear to be any more destructive today.
According to the work of Roger Pielke of the University of Colorado, of
the top five most destructive storms this century, only one occurred
after 1950 - Hurricane Andrew in 1992. An NOAA analysis says there
have been fewer Category 4 storms throughout the past 35 years than
would have been expected given 20th-century averages.

None of this data matters particularly, since proponents of global
warming will continue to link warming with hurricanes. It generates
headlines in a way that debates about tiny increments of warming don't.
And it feeds a conceit that is oddly comforting: that whatever is wrong
with the world is caused by us and fixable by us. Alas, it's not so.
Mother Nature can be a cruel and unpredictable mistress, and sometimes
all we can do is head for the high ground.

.

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