Re: Creationism in Science Fiction

throopw@xxxxxxxxx (Wayne Throop) wrote:

: "noRm d. plumBeR" <send@xxxxxxxxx>
: If either of them had a functioning mind he'd admit that mathematical
: probability computations have nothing whatsoever to do with the actual
: occurrence of any single event within the real world,

Only in the sense that there is no reason to suppose the sun
will come up tomorrow. Which is to say, it has many extremely
useful, practical applications to predicting what events may...
eventuate.

The first thing anyone who gambles needs to learn is that past events
are not a valid predictor of future events.


As I say, in Las Vegas, they call people who think mathematical
probability has nothing to do with how dice, cards, coins, or
whatnot, fall, are called suckers.

I presume the "they" of whom you speak refers to casino management.

Casinos are not engaged in the practice of gambling, they are in the
business of money management. Those are not the same thing. Money
management in this context always includes the concept of the house
advantage, and house edge has nothing to do with chance.

"They" call the rubes of whom you speak "customers".


: You seem to be saddled with the illusory concept of a "fair die",

In the sense that an idealization is an "illusion", sure.
In other words, a very very very useful concept to be saddled with.

Given a "fair die" and an imaginary "long run" what you end up with is
nothing whatsoever.


: and you go beyond that to presume that given a "fair die" the results
: will conform to those predicted by mathematical probability
: computations.

Again, in Las Vegas...

In Las Vegas the casinos provide scantily clad ladies who bring free
drinks to ensure that their customers stick around for long enough
that the house edge earns a profit for the casino.


: However you neglect the fact that the die is being thrown by someone
: who may actually have psychotic<sic> abilities that allow him to
: control the result after the die is tossed, and you completely ignore
: the effect of the entire rest of the world on your tiny non-isolated
: yet presumably "fair" experiment.

I don't neglect these factors. I merely assign them an appropriate amont of
attention, given their likelihood based on experience.

Experience is a collection of past events; past events are not a valid
predictor of future events. On the other hand, experience provides an
opportunity for one to learn some crude approximation of the
algorithms which actually determine events.

"Get ye hence to the temple of Lord Murphy and beg him for pain that
your eyes may become opened." --Josiah Bones


In much the same way
that I assign an appropriate amount of attention to the possibility
that a meteor, or lightning, or a rabid elephant, will strike me down
when I step out my door in the morning.

I suspect that you may be providing insufficient attention to the
possibility of being struck by lightning; on the other hand you
doubtless carry excellent health insurance.


: There are no odds, there are only results.

Suuuuuuure, mnaster Yoda. Suuuuuure.

"If you strike me down, I shall become more powerful than you could
possiblyimagine."
--- Obiwan Kenobi

"Go ahead, make my day." -- Dirty Harry


"But I'm a supersticious man. And if some unluck accident should
befall him, if he should be shot in the head by a police officer, or
if should hang himself in his jail cell, or if he's struck by a bolt
of lightning, then I'm going to blame some of the people in this
room... and that I do not forgive."
--- Vito Corleone

Vito was wise in the ways of doublespeak. Rubes ("suckers" if you
prefer) think what is told to them is true but the essence of
esotericism is that multiple meanings exist, surface meanings for
marks and deeper meaning for carneys.

--
"Vengeance is mine" saith Montezuma
.

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