Re: statistics [was something else]

Wayne Throop wrote:

:: Heads would be the logical choice.

: barf-bear <no@xxxxxxxxxxx>
: So would tails, using a different logic.

No, that would be a different illogic. (I assuming you're talking
about the "tails are due" rationale, though it would be nice if you
were explicit.) Your problem is that you think choosing heads is also
illogic of a similar nature. Apparently, you don't realize what the
choice of heads is based on at all.

: The problem is, logic has nothing to do with what happens next.

No, the problem is, can a history of outcomes provide usable odds for
predicting future outcomes. And it can. Not by the mechanisms you
are apparently halucinating that are being proposed, but it can
nevertheless. Secondarily, does it make sense to make a choice of a
single outcome based on odds. And it does.

The logic behind choosing heads is that there are three basic
possibilities, given what's gone before:

1. It's a fair coin toss, with a really unusual run of heads. In that
case, it's approximately 50/50 and heads is as good a choice as tails.

2. It's not a fair toss, and is under the control of the tosser or
other external entity. In that case, it doesn't matter what you choose
as they will control the toss to achieve the desired outcome.

3. It's not a fair toss, but not under anyone's control (like a
weighted coin). In that case, heads is what you should choose, as
that's the higher probability result.


So for cases 1 and 2, it doesn't matter what you choose. For case 3,
heads is the choice.

I don't know in what way tails would be a logical choice.




Brian

--
Day 73 of the "no grouchy usenet posts" project
.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Martial law comes to New Orleans.
    ... Two flips, four possible combinations ... 50% of the outcomes are 1 head, ... 37.5% of the outcomes are 2 heads, 2 tails. ...
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  • Re: statistics [was something else]
    ... So would tails, using a different logic. ... Your problem is that you think choosing heads is also ... It's not a fair toss, and is under the control of the tosser or ... I don't know in what way tails would be a logical choice. ...
    (rec.arts.sf.written)
  • Lets see what happens
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  • Re: Lets see what happens
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  • Re: Lets see what happens
    ... >three possible outcomes. ... Heads ... Tails ... Or it lands and remains on its edge." ...
    (sci.physics)
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