Re: statistics [was something else]

On Thu, 16 Apr 2009 15:08:00 -0600, barf-bear <no@xxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:

Bill Snyder <bsnyder@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

On Thu, 16 Apr 2009 09:30:58 -0600, barf-bear <no@xxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:

nance@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx (Anthony Nance) wrote:

barf-bear <no@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Bill Snyder <bsnyder@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

On Thu, 16 Apr 2009 02:47:27 -0600, barf-bear <no@xxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:

throopw@xxxxxxxxx (Wayne Throop) wrote:

: barf-bear <no@xxxxxxxxxxx>
: There's that nasty conflict again, eh? Thing of it is Wayne,
: predictive statistics says the probability of a head on any flip is
: 1/2, end of story.

It says nothing of the kind.
If you were careful to say something like "a fair coin" or the such, maybe.

Sorry, I was under the apparently mistaken impression that we were
talking about statistics, probability, and occurrence in real life as
opposed to prestidigitation and marked cards.

So "in real life" if you see me flip a coin 99 times and get 99
heads, you'll be willing to bet me it'll come up tails the next
time if I give you, say, two-to-one odds?

In "real life" whatever that is, if I see you flip a coin 99 times and
get 99 heads, neither history nor probability theory would enter into
the direction or amount of my bet. I hope that isn't too confusing.

They're not confused - they're just not as eager to blindly accept
that the coin is fair as you seem to be.

More specifically, they know it's unusual but not impossible to get
99 heads in a row. In fact, they will use its unlikelihood to generate
questions whose answers will help determine whether it is indeed a
fair coin. Further, if they do convince themselves it is a fair coin,
they'll behave exactly as you suggest - the result of the next flip has
nothing to do with prior results; but that's an "if" worth checking.

In other words - they get it, the whole picture. They're wondering
if you do.

Strange, I'm looking at the wall that picture is hanging on.

But can you read the writing on it? Do you see the word
"consistency" there anywhere?

Oh, yes. Here, I'll read some of it off for you:

It says there is a thing called "the long run" which approximates
infinity.

That's a good trick. Approximating infinity, I mean. Can you
show me how you do it? How close is the approximation?

It says that no matter how fair the coin is or how good your math
skills are you cannot use probability to accurately predict an
individual outcome.

Wrong. If the coin is 0% fair, I can predict the next outcome
with total accuracy. If it's 25% fair, I can predict the outcome
accurately enough to make a whole lot of buck$, at least as long
as I'm armed and nobody else is.

It says that no matter how improbable a given outcome may be, it will
eventually occur in "the long run" (which as mentioned above
approximates infinity) as long as it is within the set of possible
outcomes.

Again, I have to wonder what you think you mean by "approximating
infinity."

It says that if a particular outcome is possible, it could occur on
the very next trial since that trial is part of "the long run".

It also says that very, very unlikely outcomes are, well, very,
very unlikely to occur on the next trial; and very, very likely
ones are very, very likely to occur -- a point which seems to
consistently escape you.

Are you with me there Bill? Are we looking at the same wall so far?
Yes? No? I don't want to be posting spoilers if we're looking at
different walls.

The one I'm looking at is brick. It's the one folks have been
beating their heads against, trying to get through to you.


--
Bill Snyder [This space unintentionally left blank]
.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Why the cards must have a memory
    ... Probability theory assumes uncertainty, ... This is why I used the "tiny universe" scenario, ... ***it assumes that the probability is heads half the time FROM NOW ... incident in this case being a coin toss). ...
    (rec.gambling.poker)
  • Re: Krigman article about sevens due
    ... You are tossing a fair coin. ... The probability is .5 for heads and .5 for tails. ...
    (rec.gambling.craps)
  • Re: Krigman article about sevens due
    ... You are tossing a fair coin. ... What are the chances of getting exactly what probability ... tails and half heads for this to be true. ...
    (rec.gambling.craps)
  • Re: WHY the cards have a memory
    ... If we keep flipping a coin over and ever, we expect that the ratio # of heads/# of tosses will approach 0.5. ... It never says if I flip a coin 10 times, it "must" come down heads 5 times. ... probability of exactly 5 heads and 5 tails is about .2461. ... As presently understood, the universe ...
    (rec.gambling.poker)
  • Re: Number Due
    ... If you flip a coin 100 times your math says you could toss 100 heads ... Your problem is that when you see 10 heads in a row (wth a fair coin) you're ... All of the calculations of probability theory are based on ...
    (rec.gambling.craps)
Loading