Re: statistics [was something else]

"Default User" <defaultuserbr@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:

Wayne Throop wrote:

:: Heads would be the logical choice.

: barf-bear <no@xxxxxxxxxxx>
: So would tails, using a different logic.

No, that would be a different illogic. (I assuming you're talking
about the "tails are due" rationale, though it would be nice if you
were explicit.) Your problem is that you think choosing heads is also
illogic of a similar nature. Apparently, you don't realize what the
choice of heads is based on at all.

: The problem is, logic has nothing to do with what happens next.

No, the problem is, can a history of outcomes provide usable odds for
predicting future outcomes. And it can. Not by the mechanisms you
are apparently halucinating that are being proposed, but it can
nevertheless. Secondarily, does it make sense to make a choice of a
single outcome based on odds. And it does.

The logic behind choosing heads is that there are three basic
possibilities, given what's gone before:

1. It's a fair coin toss, with a really unusual run of heads. In that
case, it's approximately 50/50 and heads is as good a choice as tails.

2. It's not a fair toss, and is under the control of the tosser or
other external entity. In that case, it doesn't matter what you choose
as they will control the toss to achieve the desired outcome.

3. It's not a fair toss, but not under anyone's control (like a
weighted coin). In that case, heads is what you should choose, as
that's the higher probability result.


So for cases 1 and 2, it doesn't matter what you choose. For case 3,
heads is the choice.

I don't know in what way tails would be a logical choice.

It wouldn't be a good logical choice, but if you took the view that
the same result can't keep occurring forever, and considered that
logical, it could be logical in those terms. You'd need to ignore the
infinite number of occurrence-strings within "the long run" and the
chance that you were on one where the same result didn't occur forever
but did occur more times than it already had. In other words you'd be
guessing, just like the guy who is using the accepted probability
theories is guessing. He just has a different and more widely
accepted set of beliefs. They're just as wrong because "the long run"
never ends, it's infinite, but he can use that to convince himself
that "in the long run" his strategy will pay off. Yeah, maybe, and
maybe by the time it does his coffin will be no more than dust.

--
sometimes a sig is just a sig.
.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: statistics [was something else]
    ... So would tails, using a different logic. ... Your problem is that you think choosing heads is also ... predicting future outcomes. ... It's not a fair toss, and is under the control of the tosser or ...
    (rec.arts.sf.written)
  • Re: entropy and bio-evo
    ... penny will be removed before the next penny is spun, ... used three different "operations" to measure a heads or tails uncertainty ... estimations by evolutionary biologists and others of cause and effect are ...
    (sci.bio.evolution)
  • Re: The Philosophy of War
    ... might be where the conclusion is: "the nature of the philosophy of war ... In a set of flips of a fair coin (defined as heads and tails each having ...
    (rec.martial-arts)
  • [BLOG] separated by a common language
    ... Observations on British and American English by an American linguist in the UK ... Indeed, the plural version is the AmE version, and the singular the BrE version. ... Growing up with the AmE version, I visualied the things that one 'could not make heads or tails of' to be chaotic things--sort of like a Breughel painting as done by Jackson Pollock, where you wouldn't be able to find the heads or the tails of the beings in it. ...
    (misc.writing)
  • Re: Martial law comes to New Orleans.
    ... Two flips, four possible combinations ... 50% of the outcomes are 1 head, ... 37.5% of the outcomes are 2 heads, 2 tails. ...
    (rec.martial-arts)
Loading