Re: Socialism in SF

On Apr 8, 8:13 pm, Shawn Wilson <ikonoql...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
On Apr 8, 1:59 pm, William Hyde <wthyde1...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:

We do have to do something about this problem, but getting poorer is
not the answer.



*What* problem?  'Warmer' is a not a synonym for 'worse'.  Neither is
'change' a synonym  for 'bad'.

It may shock you to hear this, but I agree that neither of those are
synonyms. Change is almost always a matter of some gains and some
losses. The question is, what is the overall effect?

But the more we look, the more problems we find, and the fewer
benefits.

Here is an example, not one I expect you to understand, but one that
interested me.

One of the touted benefits of higher CO2 levels is the "CO2
fertilization effect". Plants use CO2 to grow, so more CO2 might
allow more productive use of farmland, and so forth. Experiments in
the lab confirmed this for some plants. The problem was, field
experiments did not always show this effect, and in particular
Soybeans show a lesser, and possibly negative, effect from higher CO2
levels in the field.

It turns out that the difference is due to predators that exist in the
wild, but not in the lab experiments.

Plants defend themselves against predators in many ways, and one of
these is to produce poisons which discourage grazing. Poisons are not
always easy to produce, and have a metabolic cost, so it's not a case
of producing a "one bite and you are dead" toxin. Soybean plants, in
particular, produce a protein which discourages beetles from eating
their leaves. The protein interferes with digestion in the beetles,
which clearly reduces grazing, and in fact shortens the life of the
predator. Producing too much of this protein would be costly, so the
plant relies on a signaling process. When the plant is being chewed
on, it produces the toxin. Think of it as "just in time" delivery.

However, higher CO2 changes the chemistry of the plant, and the effect
is that the signaling process does not work as well as it should.
The predators eat more of the plant, live longer, have more offspring,
which in turn eat more of the plants. Lab experiments, this time
with predators present, confirm the work. Predators in the high CO2
environment live longer, happier (the plants also have a higher sugar
content), lives and have more offspring.

For a more detailed report:

http://news.illinois.edu/news/08/0325plantdefense.html

The fact is that the plant and animal life on Earth is adapted to
current conditions, not future conditions. Increasing CO2 increases
the acidity of water in contact with the atmosphere, and the chemical
reactions on which plants depend will change with this acidity.
Expecting the change to be for the better is like expecting a machine
to work better after you throw a spanner in the works. Maybe you will
miss all vital parts and the machine will go on as before, but it is
really unlikely that you'll make it work any better, and possible that
you will damage it.

Virtually none of the plants and animals that make up the biosphere
have been studied for this effect. Possibly no other plant will be
affected. That's not a good bet, however. Many plants use jasmonic
acid, the hormone in question.

Given hundreds or thousands of generations, of course, plants can
adapt. But we're not giving most living things that kind of time.

An exception is algae. There is a suggestion that with higher CO2
levels, algae will evolve to the point where they can take up more
CO2, which will eventually wind up as organic mass on the sea floor,
thus lowering atmospheric CO2.

Given the short lifetime of algae, this is an experiment that can be
done in the lab. Algae were subjected over hundreds of generations to
various high-CO2 environments. Some strains of the algae did evolve
the ability to absorb larger amounts of CO2. However, this did not
result in increased biomass, as the algae became less efficient at
using CO2. Net result was about zero. Algae have a mechanism for
dealing with low CO2, a situation that can happen in nature even if
overall levels are reasonable. The strains that learned to use high
CO2 lost this mechanism, and when CO2 was decreased, even for another
thousand generations, they did not re-evolve that ability.

Well, Shawn did not read that, but it was fun to type.


The climate is merely returning to its long run steady state (to such
extent that the climate even has a steady state), from an unusually
cold period.  

This is certainly not true. If we were returning to the warmth of,
say, two thousand years ago, ice shelves which have been around for
eleven thousand years would not be collapsing.

And I already know that your models don't work (economists are ratehr
expert at analyzing models

Thanks for the laugh. As you don't know any science, you'd be lost in
ten seconds attempting to analyze any climate model.

Here, read this book:

http://www.amazon.com/Introduction-Three-dimensional-Modeling-Washington-Parkinson/dp/1891389351

and get back to me.


for how well they represent the uncertain
underlying forces) and that solar scientists have better climate
models than you do.

OK, what NADW predictions do these solar scientists get? What kind of
Hadley cell? How about transient eddies? Can you connect me to some
graphics on this?

As noted climate skeptic Richard Lindzen says, it isn't solar forcing
that is causing the warming. Which we already knew, of course, but I
thought you should hear it from a skeptic.


William Hyde
.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Socialism in SF
    ... One of the touted benefits of higher CO2 levels is the "CO2 ... plants use C2 as food). ... top chambers maintained at atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 370, 482, ... In the elevated-CO2 ...
    (rec.arts.sf.written)
  • Re: Can DIY CO2 do a 150 Gal Tank?
    ... > So increased CO2 will reduce algae problems? ... So if plants have lots of Nitrate, but no X, they will be limited by ... >> I don't recommend DIY for this size tank. ...
    (rec.aquaria.freshwater.plants)
  • Re: Fertilizer and CO2 questions
    ... >> What is your experience with fertilizers and CO2? ... >> experiencing algae on the glass of my tank and leaves. ... and some other plants I can't remember there name. ...
    (rec.aquaria.freshwater.plants)
  • Re: Algal bloom as a bio-fuel?
    ... The Israelis are growing algae in PURE CO2, ... The algae are genetically engineered. ... Given pure CO2 solar power can be ... Ordinary multicellular plants have this problem. ...
    (sci.space.policy)
  • Re: Black brush algae..excess phosphates? - Excel
    ... Too much light and not enough CO2 for healthy plants = algae. ... Improper any of the aforementioned for plants to utilize the available ...
    (rec.aquaria.freshwater.plants)
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