Re: James P. Hogan the left-winger

On 14 Mar 2007 17:50:49 GMT, "Default User" <defaultuserbr@xxxxxxxxx>
wrote:

Richard R. Hershberger wrote:

Well, without a door choice there's no opportunity to switch based
on new information. I don't think there's even a problem without
that.

There wouldn't be a problem those times Monty doesn't open a door.
But this isn't one of those times. This time Monty did open a door.
If you want to assume that he always does this, that is fine. Clearly
Marilyn assumed this. But it is an assumption. There is nothing in
the text one way or the other. Which is to say, the problem is badly
worded. It is like a badly worded SAT question. Even if you can
guess what the test writer meant, and based on this you get credited
with a correct answer, it still is a badly worded question.

I'm not convinced of that. Whether Monty is required to open a door or
not isn't really germane. He DID open a door, then asked if the
contestant wanted to switch. Whether he did that for any other
contestant doesn't enter into it.

No, but *why* he opened a door for you, *does* enter into it. Whether
or not he opens doors for other contestants, is just an easy way to
help pin that down.

There's a huge difference between, A: Monty always opens a door with
a goat, B: Monty opens a door with a goat if and only if you chose the
door with a car, and C: Monty opens a door with a goat if and only if
you chose a door with a goat. Not that those are the only options,
but they are sufficient to indicate that "Monty opened a door with a
goat" isn't enough to answer the problem.


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Relevant Pages

  • Re: Oh no! Monty Hall problem again.....
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  • Re: Monty Hall problem
    ... Monty only open a door with a goat if the original choice was correct? ... I think *the player* must know, to get the usual 2/3 prob. ...
    (sci.math)
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