Re: They Just Don't Make 'Em Like That Any More!

David:

Mm. There is at least a tiny grain of truth to this though -- there
*is* a demographic shift going on. The USA and EU both have birth rates
below replacement, last time I checked, and the only reason the USA's
population isn't *shrinking* is due to immigration, mostly from Latin
America. The EU seems to be following a roughly analagous pattern, with
immigration made up of various Muslim-affiliated ethnic groups.
Doubtless this will lead to certain shifts in the sociopolitical
landscapes in both places, but this is certainly being blown hugely out
of proportion by reactionary elements who seem panicked at the idea of
*anything* changing The Way Things Are Right Now And Always Have Been.
Ignoring the fact that they themselves have little in common with the
Honored Ancestors.

It's more than a tiny grain of truth. If (and note, that is _only_ an
if) current birthrate trends continue then western Europe will become
majority Islamic by about 2065...give or take a decade. That matters
if (again, just an if) Islamics don't assimilate more and better. The
latter is tied to the former. If Islamics don't assimilate, en masse,
they're birthrate is likely to stay about as high as it is.

There's another factor, too, and one reason I am inclined to think it
will happen (given those two "ifs") rather sooner. It's not hard to
find historical incidents (and you don't have to dig all that
far...some are going on right now. I understand the non Latin
population of California is dropping as cultural Anglos leave and are
not replaced). Add to that the low economic growth in western Europe
and the burgeoning pension bill and it isn't hard to imagine young
Europeans deserting the place like rats from a sinking ship.

So: is there a solution to low non-Islamic birthrates? Not in anything
active one can do. Some have been tried and, while they seem to effect
_when_ women bear children they don't seem to effect how many. Is
there some reason to believe Islamics are being culturally assimilated?
Not much, though Germany appears to do better in this regard (in part,
I think, because Germany attracts Turks, Balkans, and Iranians rather
than Arabs, North Africans, and sub-Saharan Moslem Africans. Different
cultures, really). Is the tax bill for the retired going to lessen?
Not much reason to believe so; it appears politically impossible.

So were I betting on it, and in a sense I am, Europe appears certain to
become majority Islamic sometime this century. I would not generally
expect Latin culture (Italian, French, Spanish, most Benelux) to
survive. Germany, as I said, may because they seem to attract a
different culture. To paraphrase Matthias, I can see an Iranian,
Turkish or Balkan Porsche designer much more easily than I can an
Algerian. It's a cultural, rather than a racial, thing.

Tom

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