Re: The Photonic Revolution

In article <78su4rF1nddd0U1@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
Greg Goss <gossg@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:

Mike Ash <mike@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

This is the funny thing about the computing industry: you hear about all
these radical advances, and then when they actually happen nobody
notices. This is because the computer industry is a fast-moving target.
When these amazing breakthroughs are five years from production they
sound incredibly advanced. By the time they actually ship, they're just
another small step up, advancing things along their usual curve to keep
things moving as fast as they ever have. Just look at the tech news
from, say, 5-10 years back. You'll see all these stories about these
incredible, radical, game-changing advances that were in the works. A
lot of them actually *happened*. But by the time they happened they
were, while still an advance, nothing remarkable. The same will be true
of optical computing.

I never heard when "vertical domains" were perfected in hard drives.
I was in the middle of an online argument about "you think that hard
drives are big and cheap now; just wait till they perfect vertical
recording!" and someone pointed me at a Wiki article describing how
IBM got a hokey version to market in 2001 and the real thing in 2005.

I remember articles about how "sub micron" features were going to be
really problematic in IC design. Giggle.

Just a couple of examples of what you're describing.

Yep, perpendicular hard drive storage was one of the things I was
thinking of. And you didn't miss it because it didn't live up to
expectations. If you look at the stuff that was promised for it, it was
all true! It's just that by the time it got to market, it was just
another step up.

I think this happens because, when you first research something, it is
impractical because the cost per capability is too high. As you put in
more research, you bring that cost down. At some point, it drops below
what's currently available. At that point, you start to sell it. Since
it's a fairly continuous drop, the point at which you start to sell it
is going to be the point where it's still pretty close to what came
before.

--
Mike Ash
Radio Free Earth
Broadcasting from our climate-controlled studios deep inside the Moon
.

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