Re: The 2005 hurricane season

In article <e1k9fh$cf7$1@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
Keith F. Lynch <kfl@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Wilson Heydt <whheydt@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Will cars exist in 100 years? It's very hard to think of something
will serve the same purpose to replace them.

Not for me. I'm still baffled that they caught on so widely in the
first place.

Having the advantage of 20-20 hindsight, I'm not the least surprised.

One could argue that the spread of networks will obviate the need
for widespread ownership of personal, mechanical transport, but I
think it would take a truly earth-shattering cultural change to make
the desire to be able to jump in your own vehicle and go anywhere
anytime go away.

Do you have a desire to sew your own clothes? To generate your own
electricity? To grow your own food? Bind your own books? Not as
a one-time thing to see what it's like, nor as an occasional hobby,
but every day, no matter how busy you are with other things. And to
continue doing so even if it kills more people than the 9/11 attacks
every month, costs more than all your other expenses except rent, and
consumes the majority of your free time every weekday.

My vehicles cost me far less than the rent. I don't think any of the
other things you cite are analogous. I didn't *build* my own car (let
alone design it), after all. If I didn't have a functioning car, I'd
have less time to do the things I want, not more.

If not, then why wish to drive your own vehicle every day? Unless
it's simply because transportation is so screwed up that for many
people it's the only way to get anywhere. I hope and expect that
this will be fixed in well under a century.

I think you underestimate the desire to be independent of a transport
system. To not need to schedule your life around a system that isn't
available when you want. To be able to transport yourself and any goods
you may buy without having to carry them on busses or trains, and to
be able to deliver them to your own doorstep when you want.

The power plants in them may, however, be radically differnt. If
the vehicles exist, then there will need to be roads, unless you
think the gravitic tech from David Weber is likely to be in place
in a century.

You don't have much imagination for an SF fan. Some possibilities
include:

* Something like traditional railroads, possibly underground

We have those. They follow fixed routes and schedules. Great for
long range commute, lousy for running errands. Cost (to user)
scaling lineraly with the number of people involved.

* Maglev railroads, possibly underground

Just a fancy railroad. If fast enough, good for replaing short-haul
airliners, but not well adapted to localized use.

* Off-road vehicles, perhaps with treads or even legs instead of wheels

Available now. If you add armor, it's called a"tank". Efficiency (for day
to day use) is far worse than the cars in common use now.

* Air-cushion vehicles than can handle any terrain, and water, too

I first read about 'em in the 1950s. Just try going somewhere specific in a crosswind.
And, by the way, they don't do rough terrain at all. The need a reasonably smooth
surface. If they replaced cars, you could replace roads with grass, but that about
as far as it'd go. And they'd still be--functionally--cars.

* Canals and boats everywhere

Has the same problems as railroads for common usage, and slower to boot.

* Flying vehicles. This doesn't require "gravitic tech"

Right.....100 million vehicles in the air all at the same time. You think we
have air traffic control problems *now*? How'd you like to be on a transcontinental
flight trying to descend through several thousand small flying craft?

* Telepresence, i.e. remote-controlled robots

Tough way to cart the groceries home.

* Arcologies, making everything easy walking distance

For those who wish to live on one.

* Free fall vertical tunnels to the center of the earth, with a
switching station at the center -- 20 minutes to anywhere

How are you planning to hold the tunnels open? (Not to mention, keeping
the passengers from getting fried.) Minor problem with the timing, too.
Accleration due to gravity depends on how much of the planet is still within
your distance from the center.

* Teleport booths

In the next 100 years? Unlikely. Still has a delivery problem, though solvable.

* Space warps, directly linking distant locations

How distant?

* Greatly increased lifespans, health, and fitness, causing people to
think nothing of walking a thousand miles

There are people who feel that way now--just not very much of them. I question
that even with a greatly extended life most people will be interested in getting
around that way on a routine basis. Vacation, maybe. Day to day, doubtful.

One thing I can't believe we'll have in a century is something like
the present system of hundreds of millions of individually-driven
cars. It's horrifically expensive, time-inefficient, space-
inefficient, energy-inefficient, polluting, dangerous, and just
doesn't work very well.

Okay...it beats having 100 million *horses* cluttering up our cities. Are you
unaware that one of the great virtues of cars is that they were going to solve
*the* major urban pollution problem? (And they did...they substituted another
one, but that one is being worked on pretty successfully.)

It's not like roads are a recent development, so I don't think there
is any likely replacement for them is as little as a century.

Even if something like present-day roads are still in widespread use
in a century, it may become possible to quickly and efficiently build
and move roads.

It may, but I'm enough of an engineer to doubt it. Sure, you can build a workable
road very quickly, but it's only for temprary use. It is neither cheap nor quick
to build something that will stand up to heavy use for a period of decades.

--
Hal Heydt
Albany, CA

My dime, my opinions.
.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Mass Transit
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  • Re: New insurance legislation?
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  • Re: About Time
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    ... ask the rich to take public transport. ... lots more CO2 and who knows what poison, compared to the newer cars. ... Vehicles will be much more efficient when not moving so fast. ... Roads will be safe for pedestrians and bicyclists. ...
    (soc.culture.malaysia)
  • Re: Warning of roads hell with 6m more cars by 2031
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