Re: Queen Victoria to provoke savage online debates (16 December)

"Beefies" <brianfiesSPAMLESS@xxxxxxxxxxx> writes:

Batten the hatches of any free-form discussion-of-everything-
that-someone-finds-wrong forum you inhabit.

http://www.gocomics.com/thenewadventuresofqueenvictoria/2009/12/16/

... And yet almost none of them will point out that _Let's Make
A Deal_ doesn't work like that.

Hatches battened . . .

It doesn't? That's how I remember the game working: you pick a door, Monty
says "Let's show you what's behind a door you didn't pick," and reveals
something either bad or OK, but never the grand prize you're playing for.

Yes, that's the basic routine between almost all _Let's Make A
Deal_ games: you make a choice, and then the host tries to make you go
back and second-guess it. (There are surprisingly many variations on
this, some that even benefit from skill or general knowledge, as when
answering trivia questions helps you gain chances to continue a game.
One splendid twist on the new show was to give an award in a foreign
currency, so that the contestant's idea of whether it's worth keeping
2000 Thai baht or whatnot depends on whether the contestant has ever
*heard* of the baht.)

But they don't --- for no really obvious reason, I should point
out --- play a game where the contestant has one of three options, takes
one, has an incorrect response revealed, and get the choice to switch to
the alternate original option. For single-player games, what actually
gets played is (most often) a series of binary options --- this envelope
or the small box; if you take the small box, then you can keep that or
you can trade for what's in the big box; if you take the big box, you can
keep that or trade it for the curtain. The original envelope(s) don't
get back into play.

In the new series, the Big Deal Of The Day is played with just the
one contestant and three doors to pick from, although there's no chance
for the contestant to second-guess the pick after the first, non-Big-Deal
door, is revealed. That's close to the Monty Hall Problem, at least
structurally, and you could count times the contestant wins the Big Deal
versus the times it's the second-revealed Other Door, although they didn't
play it that way in the original _Let's Make A Deal_, where the Big Deal
had two contestants vying for it.


The crucial fact that makes the Monty Hall problem work (and conclude you
should always switch) is that Monty knows where the prize is and will never
open that door. Aside from simply grinding through the possibilities, the
easiest way I conceptualize the problem is to imagine 100 doors instead of
three. You pick #16. Monty opens 98 other doors except for #52. Should you
switch? (Yes.)

Also obliterating the Monty Hall Problem from actual gameplay
on the show is that the host would offer the contestant who was thinking
to switch the chance to stay and get a sure reward on top of whatever
was in the first pick.

--
Joseph Nebus
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