Re: DS Alert (1-5)

On Jan 9, 11:32 am, "Peter B. Steiger" <see....@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
On Wed, 09 Jan 2008 05:05:08 -0800, Pat O'Neill sez:

If conditions favor more and more violent storms, then the odds for any
hurricane-prevalent area likewise increase--why not take precautions.

Sure - up to a point. But at some point the cost of taking precautions + the odds of a costly
catastrophe outweight the benefit of maintaining that course of action. It's simple cost-benefit
analysis.

*The problem with some of these insurance-based analyses is that they
are all REACTIVE--that is, they're focused on what to do after the
storm hits. My specific challenge was to determine what courses of
action should be taken *proactively* before the storms forecast by the
Magic 8-Ball or whatever they're using hit--actions that aren't
already being done anyway.

The fire department is a classic example of proactive preventative
preparation. However, there ends up a political aspect even to that
most basic concept. House and business fires are, by and large, down
sharply from the days when folks heated houses with coal or wood and
lit them with candles or kerosene or gas or sloppily-laid
electricity. But if you start doing the cost-benefit analysis and
decree that there is a lesser need for as many firehouses/firefighters
in a city, the hue and cry of "People will DIE!" effectively
neutralizes most attempts to scale down firefighting advance reserves.

In the same way, there comes a point when the cost of helping people live in a flood- and
hurricane-prone area outweighs the benefit of doing so. If you want to live in an area that is
*already below sea level* and takes numerous hurricane hits per year, go right ahead - but don't
expect me to foot the bill (through my taxes that ultimately go into FEMA's pocket). Same if you're
going to insist on building multi-million dollar homes on the edge of a cliff that runs along the
biggest fault line on the continent - yeah, I'm talking to you, movie stars with more money than
sense - dig yourself out of the rubble when the inevitable happens, don't expect me to pay for
your poor choices.

*Once again, political suicide. Imagine if an effective leader had
simply said, "This is the end of New Orleans as we know it. We will
rebuild the historic areas that are still above sea level, but there's
no sane sense in rebuilding the low-level areas." There would be
cries of "ethnic cleansing!!" and maybe even "genocide!" And because
it's a "chocolate city" (note--NOT MY WORDS), there would have been a
racial component to the discussion that might have set back race
relations in this country 50 years or more.

In general, high-risk areas attract two types of residents: the lowest
end of the economic ladder (because the land is cheap because it's
high-risk--bayous, the Everglades, fishing boats, etc.), and the high
end (the hills above Beverly Hills, the exclusive waterfront
properties with deep-water docks, etc.). The high end, we leave to
fend for themselves--they presumably know the risks and have planned
accordingly, or can afford the loss. The low end is horribly
problematic--the folks who had no way of leaving New Orleans, for
example. As a rule, the solutions that are actually effective--risk
neutralization, relocating folks out of New Orleans and other such
areas permanently, a bus for every 47 people, evacuation camps to
house millions, super-high breakwaters/levees, etc.--are either
politically explosive or hideously expensive (thus largely failing the
cost-benefit analysis), and the solutions that are either politically
or fiscally possible--not-high-enough levees, voluntary evacuation
plans, letting folks buy their own plywood for the windows, etc.--are
either ineffective or favor those with resources to be proactive while
"punishing" those who are too poor, lazy, or stupid to be proactive.

I've heard it said that "conservatives"--sorry, I mean "puppies" a la
"Prickly City"--concern themselves with equality of opportunity,
whereas "liberals"/"progressives" concern themselves with equality of
outcome. It appears to me that the reaction to this discussion seems
to break down along these lines, and that some folks favor spending as
much as necessary in hope that no one has to suffer. I'm sorry, but
that just ain't going to happen, no matter how much you throw at the
problem--a problem that, in this specific case as far as we can tell,
is still woefully inaccurate as well as hopelessly non-specific as to
location.

And by the way, all my work with any emergency agency--from volunteer
firefighter/fire police to search/rescue to Radio Amateur Civil
Emergency Services--have been volunteer and unpaid. Just so you know
that sometimes government money doesn't *have* to be involved.
.

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