Re: Who is LOTR about?

In message <news:3JmdnShfMJIjNQTVRVnyvQA@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
"Andrew C" <aclark@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
spoke these staves:

"Troels Forchhammer" <Troels@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote

In message <news:h-SdnRkvGaC0MAjVRVnyhgA@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
"Andrew C" <aclark@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
spoke these staves:


<snip>

Firstly, I didn't specify that the distribution of the Rings *to
men and dwarves* was the principal component of the Plan for World
Domination, as you seem to be arguing.

That much was implied, since with the original plan (letting the
Elves distribute the Rings among themselves) the aim was only to
dominate the Elves. That this was a part of a larger scheme of world
domination has never been contested.

Secondly, my thesis was that the distribution of the Rings was the
principal component of the War, or put another way that the Rings
of Power were Sauron's principal weapon system of that war.

Eh? Sauron was utterly unable to use any of the Rings of Power
(except, of course, the Master Ring) in this war -- the Elves held
the Rings, but didn't use them, and even if Sauron did seize sixteen
(or fifteen) of the Rings of Power towards the end of the war, there
is nothing to suggest that he managed to work whatever additional
corruption on them, distribute any of them and obtain control of
this new keeper.

The first stage, covert distribution to Elvish leaders, failed
badly.

Sure.

(Not that there was anything covert about the distribution, since
the Rings were in Celebrimbor's keeping, it seems most likely that
the idea was to have Celebrimbor distribute them to some Elves, only
Celebrimbor discovered the secret before the plan got that far --
the covert part was Sauron's true identity and the creation of the
One Ring)

A second more overt stage followed and also partly failed in that
Dwarf leaders resisted control.

Indeed, though even for the Dwarves it wasn't a complete failure
(the Dwarves /were/ affected by their Rings, even if not to the
degree Sauron had wished), and of course the Man-part of this
alternative plan was an unconditional success as seen by the
emergence of the Nazgûl about SA2251.

Later, the whole ring-gift strategy went catastrophically wrong
when the Last Alliance overthrew him.

I don't see how this pertains to the Ring-gifting strategy. You seem
to imply that control through the Rings was such an important part
of Sauron's strategy for world-domination that failure in
world-domination equals a failure for the Ring-gifting plan. I don't
agree with this at all. Sauron had, initially, planned to dominate
the Elves through their leaders bearing Rings of Power, but with
respect to both Dwarves and Men, he had other means to dominate them
(most Men in Middle-earth in the Second Age /worshipped/ Sauron).

Your argument that failure proves improvisation is not logical;
you seem to be confusing intent with success.

It would have been illogical had I made that argument, but since I
didn't, it doesn't really matter.

<snipping>

Moving on to the Third Age and the War of the Ring

Sauron was sure that he could win this war whether he had the
Ring or not, as long as his enemies did not learn to use the Ring
fully before he stuck, victory would inevitably be his (the
destruction of the One Ring never entered into his thoughts).

Sure, as long?

A conditional statement is not certainty.

I am a Dane struggling to express myself in English, and I do
apologize if my intention doesn't come through as I had hoped. What
I intended was to use what is, in statistics, known as a conditional
probability (in this case a subjective probability, so we would have
to use Bayesian statistics).

As Sauron saw the situation, the probability of his victory was
identical to 1, or as close to one as to make no difference, /given/
that his opponents did not use the One Ring: P(Victory to Sauron |
Enemies not use One Ring) = 1.000000

Given that his enemies did use the One Ring, he still believed the
probability of his victory was larger than 0.5 /given/ that Sauron
struck hard and fast: P((Victory to Sauron | Enemies do use One
Ring) | Sauron strikes hard and fast) > 0.5 This is explained in
detail in letter #246 in which Tolkien wrote, about the situation
when someone would claim the One Ring inside Mordor:

When Sauron was aware of the seizure of the Ring his one
hope was in its power: that the claimant would be unable
to relinquish it until Sauron had time to deal with him.
[Letters #246, to Mrs Eileen Elgar (drafts) (September 1963)]

In the same letter Tolkien explains about the the strategy that
would have been employed by e.g. Elrond or Galadriel had they seized
the Ring:

In any case Elrond or Galadriel would have proceeded in
the policy /now adopted by Sauron/: they would have built
up an empire with great and absolutely subservient generals
and armies and engines of war, until they could challenge
Sauron and destroy him by force.
[ibid.] (my emphasis)

My reading of the situation is that Sauron was remarkably unsure
and hesitant in the exercise of his power for someone 'sure' of
victory.

And we keep pointing out that this reading is inconsistent with a
number of central texts, notably information in /Letters/ and /UT/,
but also in LotR itself. The big problem within LotR is that we
don't get to see inside Sauron's head at all -- that perspective is
limited to text published posthumously.

I don't really see where you see this uncertainty and hesitation in
Sauron -- he certainly seems decisive enough to me. When he learns
about the finding of the One Ring, he doesn't waste any time sending
the Nazgûl deep into enemy territory to retrieve it, and when
Aragorn managed to convince him that he was using the One Ring,
Sauron's response starts about 3 days later (Aragorn used the
palantir on 6 March 3019 and at dawn on the 10th the fumes from
Orodruin already covered Ithilien, so they must have started on the
9th). So, what is your textual evidence that 'Sauron was remarkably
unsure and hesitant', because I don't recognize that description.

But before I'm accused of claiming that Sauron was above doubt, that
he could not feel doubt or fear, this is /not/ what I am saying. Of
course Sauron was subject to doubts and fears -- though I can't
remember a quotation to that effect, I am under the impression that
Tolkien would say that this was part of being evil. What we are
talking about here is the subjective probability Sauron would assign
to the event of his victory entirely through military means under
various situations.

Aragorn, after having confronted Sauron in the Palantir, explains
that 'He is not so mighty yet that he is above fear; nay, doubt ever
gnaws him.' Even without resorting to the 'Treebeard' excuse
('Treebeard is a /character/ in my story, not me'), it seems to me
that being 'above fear' would, however, imply a might that would be
beyond Sauron entirely, and the doubt refers not to the military
situation, but to what is happening to the One Ring. This is
illustrated in the following dialogue, when Aragorn sets out the
basis for his strategy: 'the hasty stroke goes oft astray,' he says,
with reference to his expectation that Sauron will now strike with
the force that he has gathered so far instead of waiting to build
his armies even greater, and he continues: 'we must press our Enemy,
and no longer wait upon him for the move.' Until this point the
initiative in the war has been Sauron's.

Sauron's fears and doubts, which of course he had, were never about
the purely military situation, but were related to all that was
happening with the Master Ring: it turning up in the Shire, the
Ring-bearer escaping his Ringwraiths, the strange 'luck' of his
enemies etc.

That uncertainty and hesitancy I put down to Sauron's lack of
personal power (one might even use the term 'confidence') due to
the absence of his Ring.

Sauron did not lack personal power -- he could still access that
part of his power that he had put into the One Ring, so he was not
any weaker in the Third Age than at the beginning of the Second Age
(save, perhaps, for the energy spent in creating two new bodies).

<snip>

A major milestone in this campaign is marked by the events that
happened in the background in /The Hobbit/ and shortly
afterwards, when Sauron, _having__made__his__plans__beforehand_,
gave way before the White Council at Dol Guldur, went to Mordor
and, 10 years later, openly declared himself again. Then Orodruin
burst into fire again . . .. From this point full-scale war was
inevitable, regardless of what happened with the One Ring.

It is certainly true that Sauron gathered strength - both personal
and military/economic - over many centuries after the loss of his
Ring and subsequent dematerialisation, and as he did so, he took
every opportunity to attack Gondor and his other enemies. But that
doesn't contradict what I said about Sauron lacking confidence in
ultimate victory unless he recovered his Ring.

That, however, is contradicted by the quotation from UT given in my
earlier reply. Even as he learned about the discovery of the One
Ring, Sauron was no longer planning, but 'preparing for the great
war in which he planned to sweep all his enemies into the western
sea.'

There are, of course, also other indications. Gandalf was aware that
Sauron was planning for a war even /before/ the One Ring was found,
according to his account in 'The Quest of Erebor':

'I was very troubled at that time,' he said, 'for Saruman
was hindering all my plans. I knew that Sauron had arisen
again and would soon declare himself, and I knew that he
was preparing for a great war. How would he begin? Would he
try first to re-occupy Mordor, or would he first attack the
chief strongholds of his enemies? I thought then, and I am
sure now, that to attack Lórien and Rivendell, as soon as
he was strong enough was his original plan. It would have
been a much better plan for him, and much worse for us.
[UT 3,III 'The Quest of Erebor']

But just as his enemies knew that the finding of the One Ring
heralded that the time had come, so did Sauron, but war would
nevertheless have come regardless of the finding of the Ring, though
it would have been delayed a year, two years or even decades until
Sauron had built up enough strength to win the war once and for all
(as it were he nearly managed to do this in just two years after he
learned that the Ring had been found). Remember also Gandalf's last
words in 'The Quest of Erebor':

'It might all have gone very differently indeed. The main
attack was diverted southwards, it is true; and yet even so
with his farstretched right hand Sauron could have done
terrible harm in the North, while he defended Gondor, if
King Brand and King Dáin had not stood in his path. When
you think of the great Battle of Pelennor, do not forget
the Battle of Dale. Think of what might have been. Dragon-
fire and savage swords in Eriador! There might be no Queen
in Gondor. We might now only hope to return from the
victory here to ruin and ash. But that has been averted --
because I met Thorin Oakenshield one evening on the edge of
spring not far from Bree. A chance-meeting, as we say in
Middle-earth.'
[ibid.]

<snip>

My reading of the situation is different.

Obviously. A bit of textual reference would be nice, though.

Sauron believed his Ring destroyed until he tortured Gollum.

It's a matter of debate when exactly Sauron was actually disabused
from that notion (if he ever actually did think so). His agents were
searching the Gladden Fields for the Ring long before he learned
about Gollum, so he can't have been completely convinced, whatever
Gandalf may have said.

Prior to that, Sauron worked cautiously and slowly toward
rebuilding his own personal influence and his military and
economic power, seeking - and winning - ancillary battles

Certainly. He was immortal, so he could afford to wait. He could
better afford a millennium than his human enemies could afford a
month.

but avoiding major confrontations.

Until he was ready for them, obviously.

Whether Sauron thought that the end of this process would
eventually, in the fullness of time, give him ultimate victory
is not known.

How else do you propose to explain his 'preparing for the great war
in which he planned to sweep all his enemies into the western sea'?
Or Gandalf's knowledge, /before Bilbo found the Ring/ that Sauron
was 'preparing for a great war'?

<snip more speculation>

I've provided quotations showing that Sauron /was/ planning and
preparing war long before he knew that the One Ring had been found,
and that Gandalf knew this before he met Thorin Oakenshield in Bree.
I have furthermore produced evidence of the actual military
situation in Middle-earth at the time of the War of the Ring. Yet
you, as I understand it, propose that Sauron was unaware of the
actual military situation and that he was not hoping for, or
planning, a decisive, final war?

Saruman made war to seize the Ring from whoever had custody of
it, because only as Ringbearer could he challenge Sauron.

That is only half-true.

That's because it is only half the paragraph!

What you said further didn't really do anything to address the
mistaken part of the statement. Saruman's war upon Rohan was only
very indirectly related to the attempts by Sauron and himself to
seize the One Ring. It was, of course, part of the larger
war-operations, that Sauron and Saruman each hoped would eventually
also allow himself to get possession of the Ring, but in respect to
the war upon Rohan, this was nowhere near as prominent an objective
as you propose.

<snip>

*One* of Sauron's aims was certainly the defeat of Gondor, but he
launched that attack only *after* learning that there was a high
probability that the returning King of Gondor (a major danger in
himself) was now also the Ringbearer.

Let's just say that he became convinced that this was so.

And as I explained earlier, the /timing/ of the attack was wholly
due to Aragorn's actions, and Aragorn's only aim was to change the
timing of the attack as explained above.

<snip>

Gondor had, under the command of Boromir, retaken Osgilliath and
the crossings of Anduin. This was an act of war. The reach of
Gondor had lessened, as it is said somewhere in the book, but
within that reach, they were ready to strike first and to strike
hard.

Again, only half my paragraph appears.

As I said, Gondor defended what it had when attacked, but it made
no attempts to make strategic gains - for example to recapture the
Ithilien crossroads and block the route of advance from Minas
Morgul,

I don't know how you distinguish your suggestions here from the
retaking of Osgiliath (controlling the crossing of Anduin was, IMO,
a far more important 'strategic gain' than those you mention).

<snip>

You appear to be arguing that because the Council felt they could
not achieve a military defeat of Sauron that Sauron felt he could
achieve a military victory over the Council. That isn't logical

It's not really meant to be logical -- it is meant to show that you
need more than just speculation. You are trying to convince us that
Sauron didn't understand military strategic situation, despite him
being the strongest power, and that puts the burden of evidence on
you. You need to provide some specific textual evidence by Tolkien
to convince me that Sauron didn't know the actual military strategic
situation.

--
Troels Forchhammer
Valid e-mail is <troelsfo(a)gmail.com>
Please put [AFT], [RABT] or 'Tolkien' in subject.

But the fact that some geniuses were laughed at does not
imply that all who are laughed at are geniuses. They
laughed at Columbus, they laughed at Fulton, they laughed
at the Wright Brothers. But they also laughed at Bozo the
Clown.
- Carl Sagan
.

Relevant Pages

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