Re: Another Anime is Dead Rant

On Nov 28, 5:59 pm, Sea Wasp <seawaspObvi...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
starc...@xxxxxxxxx wrote:
On Nov 27, 4:59 pm, Sea Wasp <seawaspObvi...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

starc...@xxxxxxxxx wrote:

I mean, consider music for a second -- most of the time, one would
have to get involved with a "tape tree" or something to that effect to
hear concert tapes.

Don't bring up music, dude, because it TOTALLY torpedoes your theory.
*ALL* of the music out there, virtually, is available for free online.
Anyone who wants to spend five minutes can find any song or artist
they want. For free. And the RIAA can't do squat about it. No, really,
they can't. They've been trying for seven years and they have failed
miserably. They stop one approach for two months, another pops up in
six new places.

Actually, I had reconsidered the music industry, and I now assert that
the only reason download sites like iTunes work well enough is that
the industry has forced people to understand that there is enough risk
that you will get nailed if you continue to download -- exactly the
iPhone analogy given in earlier discussions.

And that's why the music industry is dead -- or, really, about to die.

NOW I understand. You are posting from some other planet and haven't
looked at this one, where the music industry is still posting plenty
o' profits and shows no sign of having any trouble making money.

If they were making that much of a profit, there would be brick-and-
mortar chains like there used to be (now, maybe a couple exist), and
the RIAA wouldn't be going after people right and left, because
there'd be no need to.

You really need to take a look at the losses they've taken in CD sales
over the last half-decade. Until you do that...

Now, the music industry is indeed undergoing a CHANGE, but that's
hardly DYING.

Oh, it's dying -- and unless it can compel enough people (it has a
much better shot than anime, mind you!) to buy the product, it goes
away.

Hence, the entire hierarchy of the music business WILL DIE. The Big
Five (or Four, or is it now Three?) will no longer exist after a very
short time.

Please quantify very short, so I can make a counter-bet with you and
you will pay me after you lose.

It'd be like "when will ADV go under?" Can't say when, can say
"soon"...

What will come after it? I sense a very live-performance
oriented form, but it won't be anything like what the industry is now.

Hollywood's movie industry isn't anything like it was in the 1920s or
1950s, either, but no one ever said it DIED. Change is NOT DEATH, dude.

Actually, it damn near did die -- as many people thought it would
after the advent of radio and, especially, TV -- they just got to a
point where people were willing to pay to see movies.

Actually, I'd probably assert that's only because of the lawsuits,
meself...

You'd be wrong. Such things have not been shown to affect the vast
majority of the so-called criminals, partly because they KNOW it's
hard to catch any individual downloader, and partly because they
generally don't believe they'll get caught.

.... which is laughable, given the nature of the publicity the lawsuits
have received.

The lawsuits basically ENCOURAGE them. After all, there's hundreds of
millions of downloads that have been done in every year. There are NOT
hundreds of lawsuits successfully prosecuted, so clearly the chances
of being caught are one in a million. Or less.

Actually, have you actually seen how many lawsuits are being
prosecuted?

And one lawsuit does not come from (necessarily) one download.

Because they aren't making enough money to survive -- unless, again,
they're lying about their industry-state.

You like to use the word "lie", when the proper word is "spin".

Especially if you use the word "spin", that's the same damn thing.

"Spin" is "lie" -- it just tries to take the situation and lie about
it to make it appear as if things were going better than they were.
In fact, it's closer to the "lie" definitions which require intent to
deceive.

You ARE aware that in the movie and other entertainment industries,
"creative accounting" is part and parcel of the game? That if you
had, for instance, signed on to play in "Pirates of the Caribbean" for
a percentage of the profits, you wouldn't have yet gotten a single
dime, because the balance sheets would show Pirates lost money?

Then why isn't the SEC called in on it?? :) :) :)

(You just made my earlier point without realizing it as to why the SEC
ignores what it chooses to ignore.)

Most of the announcements I've seen from the studios boil down to:

1) Dire predictions of disaster in the future, based on (A) handwavy
and not very good understanding of the dynamics of electronic
publishing, and (B) unwillingness to consider that they need to change
their operating methods,

Which means most of the current licenses are worthless and continuing
in business probably won't work for a number of the current companies.

2) Dire imprecations of how terribly they've lost money to the evil
downloaders, with figures that SOUND bad until you think about them
and realize that in most cases all they're saying is "I didn't make as
much money as I thought I was going to", not "I lost money".

When a decision is made to license a series or how much to pay for
same, it's under the assumption that they will sell X -- if they sell
X/2, X/3, or even X/10 or worse, they lose.

And, moreover, given the current downloading craze, they may have to
understand that there's an assumed loss before they even hit the game.

(And if the recent rant by Gonzo's head is any indication, they ain't
making crap.)

Then they need to figure out what THEY are doing wrong.

Absolving the downloaders of all blame, right?

You're still not handing us any EVIDENCE. What a studio head says
means NOTHING. Nothing whatsoever. Unless it's backed by facts and
figures coming from a NONBIASED source that can be checked. A studio

If you refuse to accept what the industry head says, then you have
only one recourse:

To state the anime industry at large is defrauding the public hand-
over-fist and that the public should see to it that said industry is
out of business as quickly as possible.

Again, are they telling the truth or lying? And, since we can't see
their books (and, because of what you say, we damn well should be able
to see them), we're forced to take them at their word.

head will rant and rave about anything if the rant will make them
sound like they're DOING something that will make their stockholders
happy.

Well, if they aren't happy before this, then there's a reason they
aren't happy.

Because that's the name of the game when you're in the top
position of a corporation. It's "make the stockholders happy, or they
will have me removed from the top position". If the stockholders
expected you to double your profits, they'll be annoyed that you only
managed to manage 1.5x last year's profits.

You realize that comes from "street estimates" which come from "market
research", do you not?

And then you get to the discussion of what happens if the only way you
can get people to believe you doubled profits was to cook the books,
but, again, you don't seem to let the facts get in the way of a good
position now, do you?

Either they're telling the truth, or it's a massive fraud perpetrated
by the industry to do exactly as you state here.

And if it is fraud, then they damn well deserve to go out of business
in as expedient a manner as possible.

Mike
.

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