Re: And the next round of The Big Crackdown: The Japanese government gets in it...

On Oct 28, 1:06 pm, "sanjian" <m...@xxxxxx> wrote:

So how long do the companies go, knowing their business model is flawed,
before they adjust it?

I think one of the remaining Big Three is going to have to fold before
that happens. It would be, IMODO, such a major rescaling that the
very fabric of how America gets its anime would probably be changed.

Kiss most English dubbing goodbye, for the first line of stuff.

If you use fansubs to estimate interest, and it turns out
to not do so well, consider revising your estimate (after accounting for
plain ol' variability which EVERY project encounters).

Perhaps, but what I am asserting is that there would be many projects
that would never be attempted if their estimates were as off-base as
they appear to be.


For one vocal, there are many more silent.

The voices they should listen to are the paying customers, not the middle
fingers. I think the DVDs on my shelf count as a more significant vote than
"yay, fansubs." Of Bobobobobobo, no less.

But, again: Aye, there's the rub.

They have to figure out how many paying customers there are and who
they are before they can do that, and I'm not even sure they've gotten
that down pat yet.

Fansubs wouldn't be considered such a problem if enough people bought
the product to justify the business models which both sides of the
Pacific have constructed for the anime industry. (Just like the music
industry probably wouldn't have had such a problem with Napster, et.
al., until it was clear no one was buying the pablum that said
industry was putting out.)

Then they should consider revising their business model, including how much
the market will bear and at what price. I'd like to see the market analysis
that thought that Bo*7 was a good idea. I can't imagine the fansubs were
screaming off the servers.

Not only should that anime never have been licensed, Bobobobo Bobobo
should never have been MADE. But that's another flamewar.

I reassert something I said earlier -- is there a non-zero price which
the market would bear, especially given the present model of the
Internet?

So, how many sales to me are you willing to throw away?

How many sales do they perceive they would get from people who
wouldn't throw one plugged nickel at the process?

If they had done their market analysis right, very few. If they're STILL
botching their market analyses, then the real question is why?

Why do you think?

I mean, you would be the _second_ wave of people to leave the anime
playing field once The Big Crackdown gets full-bore (as I am very
surprised it hasn't already -- and can't think it can be held back
much longer). The first wave is those who flip off the industry
anyway.

So throwing away sales to people like me is a good idea?

They may not be getting that many sales to begin with -- there are
those claiming that a number of American licenses aren't even covering
their dubbing costs.

Then they don't matter. Basic finance - you only look at the
incrimental cash flows.

Basic business - you try to estimate how many people will purchase
your product.

Basic business part two - if your estimates are consistantly wrong, revise
how you do your estimates.

How could they do their estimates, otherwise?

Those people figure into no business model, so you don't bother
with them.

Try telling the companies that -- I assert that that's the reason
we're having such a problem in the anime industry today. The
fansubbers and downloaders are being figured into the business model,
as unreasonable as that might be.

If it's unreasonable, then why are they still doing it? Should I have any
sympathy for them if they refuse to make sensible decisions?

Should we have any sympathy for people who openly torpedo the entire
industry by stealing all of their anime and giving nothing back?

Surely, it couldn't have anything to do with poor decisions on the
industry's fault.

Poor decisions, yes. But decisions based on popularity none the less.

I expect buisnessmen to be able to figure out how to adjust forecasts when
their initial assumptions turned out to be flawed. Fansubs are a good gage
of market interest, but you have to be smart about what you draw from the
data. Do they just multiply the number of fansubs by fifty to tell them
their expected sales? Maybe they should try forty? I imagine the
popularity of fansubs tracks pretty well with the popularity of a commerical
release, though there are bound to be a few flubs (no different than any
other capital asset investments in any industry). The only question is, by
what factor?

Actually, I would go with a factor of zero.

The fact is that they have to figure out how many people are going to
BUY the anime. Not how many people like it, not how many people would
watch it, but how many people would BUY it -- at ANY price.

I mean, one future model has no anime being licensed for dubbing at
all that they can't get on television here in the States -- will it
have to come to that?

Sounds good. That means there will be plenty of anime that isn't licensed
for a savvy entreprenuer to snap up and license for the rest of us. I doubt
the studios will turn down the extra cash flows.

You're assuming the market will bear a non-zero price in that regard
-- unless there is massive Net-censorship for ownership of content
(NOT necessarily for appropriateness of content, but to defend
copyrights), I'm not sure any non-zero price works.

Mike

.

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