Re: Hybrids Hurt Highways

On May 7, 3:33 pm, Arif Khokar <akhokar1...@xxxxxxx> wrote:
Larry Gross wrote:
On May 7, 11:51 am, Arif Khokar <akhokar1...@xxxxxxx> wrote:
Unless the percentage of trucks and SUVs drops significantly, then that
won't be true. The average fuel economy of all vehicles hasn't really
changed that much in almost 20 years, IIRC.

The main problem with highway funding is that the gas tax hasn't kept up
with inflation. The tax should be a percentage of the gallon price,
rather than a fixed amount. Twenty cents is 20% of a one dollar per
gallon price, but is only 6.3% of a three dollar per gallon price.
FYI -http://online.wsj.com/article/SB117745992219081291.html?mod=hps_us_at...

excerpt: " Cars and trucks are getting more fuel-efficient, and that's
good news for drivers. But it's a headache for state highway
officials, who depend on gasoline taxes to build and maintain roads."

"Federal excise taxes dedicated to highways grew 10% between 2000 and
2005, according to the Treasury Department, and are forecast to grow
an additional 11.6% through 2011. State receipts increased 12% from
2000 to 2005, according to the U.S. Transportation Department. But
most of the revenue growth reflects an increase in the number of miles
that each car travels.

In 1990, the average car on the road traveled about 11,107 miles a
year. In 2005, each car traveled about 12,084 miles annually. More
miles traveled leads to faster deterioration of highways and a greater
need for repairs. More traffic also leads to increased congestion --
and to calls for more roads."

Compare the overall fuel economy from 1980 versus 2005 on page 9 of this
pdf file: <http://www.epa.gov/otaq/cert/mpg/fetrends/420r05001.pdf>.
You'll see that it's practically the same. The only reason there's a
funding problem is that the revenues haven't kept pace with inflation.
They should, considering construction material costs are highly
correlated with fuel costs, AFAIK.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Interesting - The WSJ article also has a chart that attributes the
data to EPA.

It looks like 1985 it peaked... but the following factors probably
mean that adjustment for inflation alone won't maintain..

1. - more overall per capita miles
2. - those miles are concentrated on urban freeways so they wear out
quicker than older interstates
3. - repairing congested roads means overtime for night work...
4. - road materials costs are rising faster than average inflation
5. - fuel efficient cars AND HOV mean less gas tax also
6. - if you raise the price of gasoline - no matter what the
mechanism... indexing, sales tax, etc - it will increase the price
past the $3 level - which will result in acceleration of consumer
strategies to find ways to buy less gasoline.

I know number 6 quite well. A 38 gallon gasoline tank of a van
costs more than $100 a fill-up. The cure is to drive that Van less and/
or find another vehicle that gets better mileage.... multiply that
strategy times millions of drivers as gasoline creeps up past $3 and
towards $4 and the basic trend is that the more it costs per gallon
the more millions of drivers will take action.

In the longer run... the revenues are not going to increase... IMHO

.

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