Re: SOT: Oil's slide could push gas to $1.15

Sherman L. Cahal wrote:
Mike Tantillo wrote:
http://www.newsobserver.com/104/story/486039.html

Oil's slide could push gas to $1.15
Tension in oil-producing regions is easing, and stockpiles of crude are
approaching 1990 levels

WASHINGTON - The recent sharp drop in the global price of crude oil
could mark the start of a major sell-off that returns gasoline prices
to lows not seen since the late 1990s -- perhaps as low as $1.15 a
gallon.

We had a discussion about this in my JPN 421G course, which was of
interest to the discussion at the time. Innovations in the Japanese
transportation system, brought on partially by a) their culture, b)
their existing infrastructure, c) their city layout patterns, d) price
of gasoline, and e) population densities has led to one of the world's
most efficent and speedy networks.

Then jump to the US. We have an ad-hoc system here, where some cities
such as Chicago and New York City featuring effective systems based
upon mass-transit. This is primairly brought upon the existing
infrastructure, population densities and city layout patterns more than
anything. But jump to many major cities, such as Louisville (KY), or
Indianapolis that had efficent transit systems in the past, you'll see
that they are at a much reduced scale today.

For once, due to high gasoline prices (which is still quite low
compared to 1980 fuel indexes), we are seeing a jumpstart on major
investment projects. I'll note some instances:

a) Louisville KY's TARC system is seeing record ridership. Lines are at
capacity or nearing it, from the suburbs to the downtown. Those suburb
routes, which are fairly new, connect to a downtown connector from a
park and ride lot - in places like Oldham County, one county away. What
you hear, and what was quoted, was that riding the bus was "less
stressful" and allows them to "read the newspaper" or catch up on much
needed "sleep." Those riding were polled by the C-J, and if gas prices
were to go down to $1.50, "85%" of those polled riding the bus on that
day said they would continue to ride.

b) Lexington KY's ridership on LEXTRAN's system is seeing its highest
numbers, after coming from a pretty dismal low due to funding. In 2005,
voters overwhelmigly approved of raising the tax used to fund LEXTRAN,
as it was not keeping up with inflation, the increase in fuel costs,
etc. You now have increased ridership, new routes, and new thinking.
For instance, it is now being discussed that park and ride lots in
Nicholasville, a major commuting suburb, would work if it linked
directly to Lexington. The existing highway, US 27, is a four-lane
highway at LOS D and E with no widening plans in the works for the next
12 years or more. Since there are really no major stops in between, a
direct route with stops only at transfers would be quite efficent.

Just two instances on revised ways of thinking. I hope to hear more
constructive comments (e.g. not "transit systems suck and eat up all
our taxpayers dollars") to this, or if someone wants to expand on what
I stated with their own examples.

Sherman:
I think you and I both know this is not a permanent condition with oil
dropping.
I wnat to see what happens after the Nov election. If prices continue
to drop after the election then maybe I will believe it.

But China and India continue to guzzle oil, and if prices go down, you
know
people will start buying gas guzzlers again and revert to their old bad
habits, like commuting long distances.

I do not believe people will use mass transit if gas goes below $2/gal.
Not with their trusty SUV sitting in the driveway.

Maybe now is the time for a substantial increase in the gas tax.
There is a lot of bridge and construction work that needs to be done,
and the money has to be there. And to encourage conservation. If oil
prices continue down, construction bids will come down like they were a
few years ago, with the big contractors begging for work.

Just a thought.


Take care,
Randy in Clearwater, FL

.

Relevant Pages

  • The dangerous liberal oil prices
    ... If they had been in control during the last 8 years our gas prices would be ... Congress' Oil Barons ... Gas taxes never go down. ...
    (rec.music.classical.guitar)
  • Re: $100-a-barrel oil fuels conspiracy theories
    ... Some see plot to jack up gas prices - others say there's more to it. ... Wednesday's news that oil briefly hit $100 a barrel has revved up ... to pass on their savings once the wholesale price retreats. ...
    (misc.consumers)
  • Re: OT: 2006 US Elections
    ... Gas: Prices through the roof, with no indication of an end in sight. ... If prices keep going up, someone's going to get the bright idea to invest in a few new oil refineries. ...
    (comp.sys.mac.advocacy)
  • Re: Gas Prices enroute to Scranton?
    ... > The long term solution to gas pricing is not more govt controls. ... There seems to be no shortage of gas ... ... just prices that go up and up no ... I wonder why the oil companies who have recorded record profits for the last ...
    (rec.arts.marching.drumcorps)
  • Crude oil is getting cheaper -- so why isnt gas?
    ... Crude oil prices have fallen to new lows for this year. ... you'd think gas prices would sink right along with them. ...
    (misc.news.internet.discuss)