Re: Gas Tax Killers - Hybrid autos that plug-in at night - use minimal gasoline


John Lansford wrote:
"Larry Gross" <gross.larry@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:


I have a water heater.. that is on a box.. that shuts off power to it
when the electric load is at peak. California is putting "smart meters"
in homes that tell folks what the costs are for time of day use... the
idea being that folks will defer... some useage to cheaper times.

Riiiight. People will come home and "defer" turning on their AC to
cool off their house, or "defer" cooking dinner until 10:00 pm.
Suuure they will, Larry. Do you like eating cold food in an 88 degree
house?

oh I agree.. folks are not going to turn off their AC... but I think
they
can and will defer other useage ... like the water heater and
recharging a hybrid
or washing and drying a load of clothes... etc. especially if electric
companies
start charging more for peak load useage... The technology for that
already
exists and is in use in some parts of the country.


Plug-in hybrids probably will end up with a box similiar to what I have
on my water heater.
Recharge power will only be provided once the network power load falls
below max ...

And what happens if that means your hybrid doesn't get a full charge
for the next day?

well.. you'll use more gasoline useage I suspect unless it costs MORE
than the
electric costs OR you have to wait in line for an hour.. and yes I
agree that
ultimately.. it means that utilities will have to build more
plants....and/or charge
more for electricity - and I think you can count on that happening.

... butthe original article ... was about what impact that plug-ins
might
have on the gasoline tax ... and I think that premise is still in
play...
no matter what impacts it might have on the electric grid... because
people don't make decisions on future impacts .. but rather on what
is in the best interest in the here and now....

... and if you want to add more fodder to the mill... there are also
efforts underway to mate hybrids with flex-fuel and clean desiel
engines.

.... so .. basically if a consumer is comptemplating the purchase
of a new car ... in an environment where the price of gasoline will
almost certainly not remain at today's prices... and could, in fact,
get much more expensive over the next 5-10 years that a consumer
would likely plan on keeping that car.... do you think they rule out
from
the get-go... say.. a flex-fuel hybrid plug-in?

I think the only question is whether the percentage of consumers would
be 2% or 20% .. and how long it would take to ramp up.

... and keep in mind... that urban MPOs whose road construction plans
are severely impacted by non-attainment ceilings.. would just LOVE the
idea of folks driving cars that emit less tailpipe emissions... even if
it means more powerplant emissions - that's some other guys' problem...
:-)

I think we're on the cusp of major changes in the ways that we fund
roads and in fact, it's already happened as many DOTs.. such as VDOT
can tell you right now that within a decade or less.. the gas tax will
only provide for maintenance.. not new construction.

So.. the question now.. is will gas tax revenues actually decrease even
further and at even a quicker rate with the advent of plug-ins....

.

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